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Sunday, March 13, 2016

Logic Trading Analysis(LTA) - Watchlist for March 2016

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After the big fall of January till Early March, it's time we shall come back to pay attention to our stock market after DJIA posting strong gain pointing upwards, which will definitely kick all other country market to be more positive, and of course to FBMKLCI as well.

Refer to here:

I not here to explain how overall market outlook will be, just take note if DJIA suddenly close below 17000 again this week then we may need to revise our plan. Or else you may pay attention to some of the stock pick below.

Since RM getting stronger, export theme about USD over, market struggle to find new theme or stock worth to collect or goreng stock, obviously market shy away for almost 3 month. BUT I here to tell you, take note on some of the stock below which might have potential to go higher. (I am not SIFU, if I wrong, I not take any responsibility, scolding are not welcome)

One of the theme may come next shall be Construction related (may just last a short time). As we already spotted some of the construction counter begin action.

Refer here: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/10/26/construction-sector-main-beneficiary-of-budget-2016/

I am expecting more projects such as the Refinery and Petrochemicals Integrated Development (Rapid) in Pengerang, Johor, the Pan Borneo Highway, mass rapid transit 2 (MRT2), light rail transit 3 (LRT3) and PRIMA housing, flood mitigation will be awards and start soon. (many area kick start selling PR1MA housing project)

Construction index have been long depressed and sideways consolidated for half year, and it's getting closer to 200days moving average.

Stock below are some consider good construction counter we may look see for short term.

KIMLUN - (one of my Meletup stock picks on last year) ALL major bank upgraded to further buy and higher target price after getting PAN BORNEO PROJECTS. I believe KIMLUN will bagged few more projects soon ! Upgrade to BUY, TP: RM2.23 !!

Refer more about KIMLUN here: 

This stock picks was shared in premium group during 3/12/2015. Already more than 20% profit.

GAMUDA & GAMUDA-WE -GAMUDA have passed 200 days moving average after 9 month of consolidate. It's very high possible to goreng towards RM 5.0 soon looking at latest list GAMUDA-WE demand. GAMUDA-WE (closed RM 0.965) exercise price RM 4.05, equal to RM 5.015.

Due to long expiry date till year 2021, high premium of GAMUDA-WE are expected to make it move above RM 1.0 very very soon (maybe Monday). Note that if market did not crash or fully recover on year 2018 onwards, GAMUDA will confirm go above RM 6.0 due to heavy construction works towards national goal of WAWASAN 2020, another things is before 2018, Malaysia must ready for better infrastructure, greater Kuala Lumpur to cope with TPPA.

(If GAMUDA reach RM 5.0, warrant without premium should trade at RM 0.95, but due to long expiry date, normally 10-30% higher premium will be given. Therefore Gamuda-WE will be roughly between RM RM 1.045 - RM 1.235) Remember this is based on market stable and mini bull scenario, if bear come attack again all will diminish, don't ever act like crying baby and complaining the tips doesn't work ! Do your own homework !


SUNCON - After the big spike last Friday, it has move into uncharted territory. This new IPO never move much since last year IPO. However something important to note that which is During the big fall of January-March 2016, it continue moving sideways and totally did not fall. This is obvious and strong signal that something good is coming. I assume it can go further. Maybank TP RM 1.65. Whether it will have some correction before Meletup further or straight Meletup all the way are up to the market decide.

GKENT - Another construction that still doing well in year 2016. This month will post its result, if good then will first challenge RM 1.70, then next RM 2.0 should not be any problem. And of course if bad then will slowdown its uptrend movement. But with its high order book in hand, this counter remain strong in outlook.

Refer some here:

MITRA & MRCB & GADANG - All seems potential to move higher. Remember to put in watch list !

After sharing Construction stock picks, some other stock picks that in my watch list are such as: 

TAANN - I been telling about this stock in groups when it's below RM 4.65.  I am expecting it to hit back RM 5.0 soon due to free bonus of 1 : 5 coming soon.

HSI-C17 - This is highly speculative and super high risk call warrant betting Hang Seng Index up in near term. An overnight of super DJIA +218.18, HSI FUTURES +331.0, I guess Monday gonna gap up at least RM 0.38 - RM0.40 (and I already brought it :)). If DJIA wanna big show one more day up, then this HSI-C17 and other HSI call warrant gonna Meletup so damn kuat. But please, it may not work out right totally and if you don't know how to trade, stay away and don't touch and lose and cry baby. Monitor DJIA futures often. 

AAX, AIRASIA, TUNEPRO - This 3 company are best performer after February result release. You cannot ignore this company because some people

You can find people are almost want to 

 Sell Your Car, Sell Your House. Time To Sai Lang for AIRASIA (JOKE)
Refer here: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/92726.jsp 

I did not give a very high target price but RM 1.80 and RM 2.0 are achievable. This is simply because turnaround from previous quarter with lower oil cost and next quarter will be reporting on Feb, March and April result, which is also peak season for travelling especially during Chinese New Year. During this 3 month oil price remain low and I can notice many friends start travelling to Japan and other country already !

AAX - This would be much more exiting compare to AIRASIA because of cheap price and finally turnaround to profit after so many quarter since IPO at RM 1.20. Looking at the volume never been so huge already know that the demand are extreme and expectation towards higher price are very high. I looking at a target of RM 0.40.

TUNEPRO - Riding the wind of AIRASIA and AAX, start to see big volume and very low price too. Latest result show very stable improving income which are consider a very safe entry. My first target at RM 1.50 which is also very conservative.

RSENA - The strong volume spike on Thursday hint something good is coming, guess they have finally find the right company to be acquire. Even they cant find any within 3 years time, there are still cash RM 0.46 per shares in account. If they able to find, then definitely will unlock this company value and further higher to go !

(from RSENA Annual Report year 2015, it's not hard to find, it's whether you put effort to read and understand it or not.)

GENTING, GENTING-WA & ASTRO and some other INDEX stock shall move higher due to FBMKLCI gonna break 1700 level once again.

Are you ready to GORENG?


Logic Trading Analysis

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