Disclaimer: This is my personal logic trading analysis blog that show my own personal analysis. All information provided here are for sharing purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. Buy at your own risk.

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Sunday, December 27, 2020

TDM - THE WHITE HORSE OF YEAR 2021

Today I decided to share something about TDM Berhad (2054). It seems to me that this stock is very undervalues, and could potentially become the white horse of year 2021. And I estimate the price to double up from current level.

I guess TDM actually is not a stock that many interested, due to the business nature in plantation and healthcare. It's a solid business company, which have less people interest in especially many stock market sifu never bother to mention or goreng it, most probably due to its share based 1.723 billion, looks bigger, harder to manipulated compare to those steel stock. 

However if to compare on fundamental and future prospect, I dont think it should losing behind steel and those goreng stock too much. Why I said so?

Put it simple, lets look at latest result:

If the next 3 quarter maintain same earning of RM 21 million, which Earning Per Share will be 1.26x4 = 5.04cent. 

RM 0.0504 x PE 10 only already = RM 0.504
RM 0.0504 x PE 12 only already = RM 0.604

Its has finally turnaround to profit of RM 21 millions, and what we can expect for next result already mostly even better or similar by looking at CPO price chart below:


Its very obvious that the CPO price strong uptrend and already higher than early year RM 3000 marks.

Lets comparing with TDM price chart :


Its so obvious that current price not even higher than early year of RM 0.40+, current price of RM 0.33 which already turn profit and enjoy higher CPO price, which seems no reason for the company to stay low. 

The target we given based on PE 12, and also based on technical chart resistant area. It's still have almost 100% upside. 

Many research already expecting SOYBEAN price to going higher, same to CPO, where I don't need to explain here again, I can only say that the prospect for TDM looks very good. (soybean price go higher will causing CPO price go higher)


That's all?

Not to forget about their Hospital business !! The very important sector after COVID-19 hunting around us. 



They actually already have plan to do IPO for their hospital business, that's one of the reason they are so bullish during early year. Things mostly in pipeline, just delay due to COVID-19 mostly, but we don't want you to chase high when news of this IPO surface again. 

It can unlock cash per share of RM 0.11-RM 0.20 depending on how much the IPO raise. Its already 1/3 of TDM share price, not to forget that TDM also have cash pile per share of roughly RM 0.20. 

Imagine after IPO, they will have cash at least RM 0.30-RM 0.40,
the price you pay at stock market is exactly the full cash value of the company ! Its so undervalues !!

NTA at RM 0.43 also strong sign that they are undervalues. 

Some more??


When year 2016, CPO price only RM 2300 to highest RM 3200, Public Investment Bank already give a buy call with target price of RM 0.83, if they dare to give such target, surely they see some value in TDM. Not to say current CPO price is way higher, but price still below RM 0.40, it's hugely undervalues !


LOOK CLOSELY !


TDM total share is  1.723billion shares.

Largest shareholder is Terengganu Incorporated Sdn. Bhd, which owning 61.46%, this mean that total share they own roughly 1.058 billions, this already left 665m share only. Not yet mention some fund also holding it, like Amanahraya, Great Eastern and others. 

Since its very good chance for TDM to go up big time so that Terengganu Incorporated Sdn.Bhd only can realize some value or have better position in their portfolio, by looking at a terrible COVID year of 2020, everyone surely looking chance to make money. 

So you should know what I mean, the share in the market actually not much, if "some one" go give buy call or Sapu big BUY, it might even LIMIT UP !! 

This can happen when insider know next result !! 

Lets look at technical chart once again:


Technically price is up trending, and nearest resistant is RM 0.355, which is only 2.5 cent away. If break we will see explosive big bull towards next resistant RM 0.42. Support at trending line of RM 0.315 which every time hit trend line will rebound, a strong accumulation sign at retrace. 

As a Conclusion:

1. TDM is undervalues. Fair value at least RM 0.50 - RM 0.60.
2. TDM could earn more in next few quarter due to higher CPO price.
3. TDM's Healthcare business could be unlock value by IPO.
4. TDM price still very low as compare to last few years bank target price RM 0.83.
5. TDM have not much share in the market, which many dint notice it.
6. TDM technically uptrend and bullish.
7. TDM could potentially double up in year 2021, as soon as first quarter of 2021. 

Above sharing is just for own studies, is not a buy or sell call, please take your action at your own risk. 

Monday, November 23, 2020

JAG - RIDING ON STRONG COMMODITY BULL

Last article about PA, we decided to share one more, since PA have already go new recent high. We shared at RM 0.125, hit high RM 0.17 today,  its 36% just within 4 day! 

So what is interesting in JAG? To me JAG (0024) is much more interesting compare to PA, that's why I have to share it before it go up another 36% or even 50%. 

Again JAG (0024) have long history in BURSA, I like it, the longer they around, mean they are there to make money, and it should fly high once it wake up.

JAG (0024) was incorporated on 14 July 1997, but the game changer is after reverse acquisition of Jaring Metal Industries Sdn. Bhd., a reputable Total Waste Management solutions provider on 10 December 2013. To reflect the change in core business, Infortech Alliance Berhad has been renamed JAG Berhad with effect from 16 June 2014.


Why is this company look interesting for now? Again similar to PA, the things they do related to commodity, but this time round is COPPER, TIN, SILVER and gold.

So very quick, we look at COPPER price first :


New high !! If you look at monthly chart, its 3 year new high now !! For sure latest result will see even better earning.

Even Tin price also rocket up lately:


I think I dont have to show you SILVER and GOLD price, as everyone know, especially GOLD price already rocket new high too.


Lets look at the result, even during MCO March To  May result also never turn red, unlike other company already loss terrible. We expecting the coming result will be even better !

Let say we estimate coming result to maintain 2.5 million, we can get 

EPS of 2.5/544.11m share = 0.0045 EPS

x 4 quarter = 0.01837 

PE 10 = RM 0.183 
PE 15 = RM 0.27
PE 20 = RM 0.366

This is purely based on if the company profit dint growth. But imagine commodity price shoot up sky, sure earning should increase as their business is direct related to it. 

Current price only at PE 11-12, compare to PA already PE 36-39, so JAG definitely is still undervalues !!

Beside we already know the private placement price at around RM 0.15, which mean the bottom is there already, max loss 4-5 cent, but max gain can be a lot. 


Not only that, the company already double their production, which should see even confirm that coming result will do even better:


Beside, they also doing renewal energy, which seems to be super hot cakes lately: 


I am expecting if they manage to get this project, price shall go limit up even ! Dont play play ! Huge contribution from this project if they manage to bid it. It will be bonus for this company, if fail the bid also doesn't matter as current e-waste business already can make stable income.

Talk so much, forget about the price chart, lets us have a look:

If you look at Monthly chart, its obvious volume recently and price still big bottom ! Monthly chart resistant at RM 0.30 and RM 0.40, if this two level can break, then should limit up like year 2014 !


If we look at daily chart, its a big round bottom up pattern, once break RM 0.22 is very strong breakout already !! Chart already speak, is up to you to take action or not already.


Wait a minute ! 


Why 24 Aug 2020 price chart gap up? Wow share consolidation again ! Just like VIVOCOM ! Share become less ! Although price did not move up immediately, it choose to consolidate 3 month only start moving.

We can obviously see that RM 0.15-RM 0.16 is bottom already, recently already start have small action, once break RM 0.24-RM 0.25 which mean super bull mari !! Because if it manage to pass share consolidate price, it usually mean super bull. Could fly like VIVOCOM !


As a conclusion,

1. JAG is on a strong recovery trend in technical and fundamental.

2. Demand and price for Copper, Gold, Tin all metal commodity is increasing.

3. JAG just done share consolidate, less share which we can see VIVOCOM, PA and many other case price will goreng up big.

4. They also doing Solar business, which going to give extra profit contribution in future.

5. The price is just waking up, it will continue to go higher and higher.


this article is just info sharing, not buy or sell call, please take ur own risk and get advice from your dealer or remisier. 




Wednesday, November 18, 2020

PA - THE FUTURE OF ALUMINIUM IS BRIGHT

 I don't usually write blog until I found the stock really worth a look. This company highly potential move up big, recently just start kick in only.

 

PA (7225) already listed long ago, it's a long history stock in BURSA that seems to be sleeping very long time already. What make it interesting now is that this company finally strongly recover, and going to start growing. 

Latest few quarter showing strong earning recover and its mostly going to do better. Because alluminium price as per today keep on increasing upward. 

As we can see, many new car increase using Aluminium. Luxury vehicles such as Ford, Audi, and Mercedes Benz have increased the adoption of aluminum as a versatile material of choice in body structures including engine, transmission, and wheels.

If we look at PMETAL, then it's no reason to ignore PA. They both have similar business, Aluminium billets and tolling.

PMETAL already go new high, thanks to alluminium price also hitting new high, most importantly the demand of alluminium also very high now. 

It will soon likes gloves, demand exceed supply, then the asp will continue go up every month. 


So what so interesting about PA ?




First Solar is a very big solar company in USA, its PA client. From our sources we believe that they will renew this contract soon, and with even bigger amount, because BIDEN win the USA election.

Very obvious, Biden is Green energy, so First Solar wound be growing even further. 


Lets look at PA chart

Technically already break 2013 high, and with big volume, this is what I call a the wake of 7 year sleeping beauty, then next 7 week might see spiral up all the way to RM 0.30. How is it possible? 

With this just approved on 16/11/2020, the share of PA will reduce half, which will become less heavy, just like the case of VIVOCOM, super easily goreng up. 


As a conclusion,

1. PA is on a strong recovery trend in technical and fundamental.

2. Alluminium price and demand is increasing.

3. PA doing share consolidate, which we can see VIVOCOM and many other case after split price will goreng up big.

4. First solar is their client, which is going to benefit them even more in future.

5. The price is just waking up, it will continue go up until share consolidate done, and go even higher. 

Tuesday, June 9, 2020

TOP PICKS OF THIS WEEK by LTA

WCT, MRCB, BPLANT, FGV <--- We looking at it

Well, when glove stock have become the top spotlight of BURSA, many have actually neglecting the rest of all other sector in Bursa.


After last week of crazy rally in Property stock and Automotive stock, I believe that investor or trader should start to pay more attention at other sector that still have big room to go up, as many sector have yet to recover much from recent rebound.

Before that,

If you missed our call on automotive and property stock like DRBHCOM, UMW, SPSETIA, MAHSING, ECOWLD and others last week, you may consider to join our free telegram live trading channel :

https://t.me/ltachannel <-- to join



Below are a few sector and stock that posing good technical : 

CONSTRUCTION SECTOR:

Since property stock have turn rally up, the indirect beneficial will be surely construction stock. We already see ECRL start awarding contract to GADANG and HOHUP, we expecting more are coming, and more mega project will start awarding contract.

After scanning through, we have selected two construction stock that have a good technical movement.


WCT (9679)

WCT have definitely building bottom after a long sell down, we can see huge volume building at this bottom, if this week price turn up, then will be a strong direction to go up already.


Technically Last week closing exactly at RM 0.525.

Support RM 0.525 , Resistant RM 0.56 & RM 0.58,

Once break the resistant price will shoot all the way to next resistant RM 0.70.

Risk reward looking good.



Boss also have been being aggressively.

MRCB (1651)

MARCB also building bottom after a long sell down, we can see huge volume building at this bottom, if this week price turn up, then will be a strong direction to go up already.



Technically Last week closing exactly at RM 0.54.

Support RM 0.53, Resistant RM 0.57.

Once break the resistant price will shoot all the way to next resistant RM 0.70.


We expecting this two company going to benefited from all the mega project that going to resume works such as MRT, HSR, LRT and many more.


PLANTATION SECTOR

FGV & BPLANT

Well, beside construction definitely plantation stock still being laggards in this recent rally. We sense that some rally will come into this sector as few reason below:


After recent new government in action, we can see that the government actually very business and stock market friendly, almost every sector been under cover, that's why even Property and Automotive stock rally. So with latest National Economic Revitalisation Plan, plantation stock is one of the beneficiary besides property and automotive, the 100% exemption on export duty on crude palm oil, crude palm kernel oil and processed palm kernel oil from July 1 to Dec 31, 2020, expecting plantation stock can move higher up.


Besides, we see that CPO price has been strong rebound recover up from bottom as well, this will bode well for plantation stock in Malaysia as most of the plantation stock movement are following the CPO movement.

Stock we have selected a few plantation stock such as:

FGV (5222)

FGV can be said that is the leader of all plantation stock in Malaysia, that's why the movement are highly valuable to be monitor and if it can turn higher up, the rest will follow.


Technically Last week closing exactly at RM 1.11.

Support RM 1.08, Resistant RM 1.16 & RM 1.20,

Once break the resistant price will shoot all the way to next resistant RM 1.35.


BPLANT (5254)

Since BSTEAD have news saying looking for privatization at RM 0.80, we expecting that the company BSTEAD holding like BPLANT will be realize big value as it's very normal for accounting measure to check on how much value BPLANT will create for BSTEAD so whether the take over is worth value or under value.


Much interestingly, in bigger view, BPLANT already at the point for direction.


In shorter view, BPLANT already breaking the downtrend line and is very ready to breakout and spike higher up.

Technically Last week closing exactly at RM 0.395.

Support RM 0.37, Resistant RM 0.40.

Once break the resistant price will shoot all the way to next resistant RM 0.58.

Thursday, January 30, 2020

GLOVES STOCK - SARS VS WUHAN (SUPERMX)

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WE all know that WUHAN VIRUS has causing this Glove stock rally, many have question that how far it can go.
Let me answer you. 
Lets us recall back 2003 SARS outbreak, to do some case studies and then only refer back our current situation.

SARS was first discovered in Asia in February 2003. The outbreak lasted approximately six months as the disease spread to more than two dozen countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia before it was stopped in July 2003.
So lets us see the past performance of Glove stock in Malaysia.

TOPGLOV 

Due to Bonus or Split, the price may look cheap. It has move from RM 0.15 fly to RM 0.70 almost 4.6x times.

KOSSAN

Also due to Bonus or split price look cheap. Price from RM 0.177 fly to roughly RM 0.50 almost up 2.8x times.

SUPERMX

From RM 0.42 fly to RM 1.37. 3.2x times. 

Up to date, WUHAN has already 7.7k confirmed case. 



How about SARS ?

SARS total case only 8098 cases while WUHAN virus just a few day already 7736 and it's still increasing every single day. Some more 12k case suspect. It's almost certainly that it will be worst than SARS ! 

If we based on this 2003 chart, we can see that a delay for all the glove stock to move, as during that time information, market movement still slower, market wait until see result good only move, but it's different compare to now, our market now very efficient and fast, so we can see all glove stock start reacting already. But how much more we can go?

KOSSAN

KOSSAN already break new high, so we believe that it's has less room to go already. 

HARTA

HARTA still way far to previous high, so still got room to go.

TOPGLOV

TOPGLOV testing previous high soon, so still potential go a bit higher or go new high.

SUPERMX

SUPERMX still far away to previous new high, that seems to be quite attractive anything below RM 2.20.

Since WUHAN virus mostly can be worst than SARS, then glove stock have double triple up during SARS time, we expect this round at least up 50% or more for all the GLOVES stock. So still got more room to go.

SUPERMX is matter of time go above RM 2.0. 




Saturday, January 25, 2020

INARI - The True and The Ugly Face Surface

We are the only call buy and have faith with INARI when it big fall down.

read here:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/logictradinganalysiss/2019-12-21-story-h1481886884-INARI_Don_t_Judge_Too_Far_Away_As_Nothing_Has_Change.jsp

INARI
recent story many have forgotten as usual, finally it's time for me to share why from INARI recent story we can see the true and ugly face of the market.

Let's us recall back what have happen to INARI recently.


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/inari-shares-end-14-lower-following-news-us-chipmaker-selling-unit


This rumour Broadcom sell of RF unit has cause INARI big fall.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/broadcom-seeks-buyer-for-rf-wireless-chip-unit-11576693454

When this "journal" come out, which has no prove and real fact, market react so panic and big sell down next day.

From there, we can see many sifu, blogger, keyboard warrior come out to pour more water.

And talk like they know Broadcom going to sell RF unit, INARI got no more future, INARI prospect very uncertain, INARI on big risk to lost order from Broadcom, Broadcom have traits to keep selling of their business, INARI is in downtrend, and many more stupid assumption, idiotic forecast that have no real prove.

Here we show you a few example,

Example 1 : 



Self make assumption Apple will take over Broadcom's RF unit, saying the bottom still very far, uncertainty too high. We can see that this blogger has totally an ignorance without knowing facts and INARI business.


Really admire this blogger that able to write a long story about Broadcom Ceo Hock Tan, to tell everyone that he high chance sell of RF unit business. Steady bomb bi bi this blogger, maybe he got yumsheng with the Ceo.


Example 2,


Some more discussing other's company future with friends, and seems that they know Broadcom direction better than Broadcom Ceo Hock Tan, again talking about INARI future is uncertain at the time when INARI is falling.

Example 3,



This one worst, Drawing imaginary chart saying much more falling will come, and simple saying, his imagination is really broken like how the page name itself.

Example 4, 



This is the worst I feel, taking opportunity to promote system, saying they have give sell call earlier. Whether they did or not doesn't matter, it give impression that this stock is downtrend. We may see they give buy call again when price go above RM 1.90+. Why don't they give a call when price shoot down at RM 1.60 + ? Because this kind of technically analysis always based on moving average, so its obvious going to be wait until all mars line align up only call.

There are so much more keyboard warrior which we din't want to highlight because it's too many.

Let us see what is INARI price now.


INARI price has recovered and go even higher from where it fall ! It's prove that the panic sales, Ugly face is wrong ! We shared our view after it fall in our blog. You can read again here:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/logictradinganalysiss/2019-12-21-story-h1481886884-INARI_Don_t_Judge_Too_Far_Away_As_Nothing_Has_Change.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/logictradinganalysiss/2019-12-23-story-h1481912738-BROADCOM_TO_SALE_RF_UNIT_NO_SUCH_DEAL.jsp

As a conclusion of this articles, 

We like to tell every investor, do not simply believe all the news in the market, all the make up story by the market or blogger, all the sohai assumption, all the stupid rumours, all the funny chart expectation and some half cook sifu.

The intention of this blog is not humiliating other sifu or blogger, but it's a lesson we all should learn, never make up anything that you don't know, never believe anything is not fact !


What we can see is that APPLE sign more deal with Broadcom and it worth $15 Billion ! Which can last till 2023, 3 years from now !