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Monday, April 13, 2015

ESCERAM - Fast Growing Glove Stocks


After a long time I dint update my blog, today I would like to share another new stock which is 
ES CERAMICS TECHNOLOGY BERHAD (0100) (Shariah-compliant) Today Close 0.325 . Why?

I am interested with this company because my logic analysis tell me yes ! This is the company I want to buy for short/medium/long term. Lets us have a quick review in GLOVE sector Malaysia. refer over HERE: <----
To be not surprise Malaysia is well known to be one of the world largest producer of gloves. refer HERE <--  

We have seen many successful company for glove sector in Malaysia, will ESCERAM too? 

Lets back to ESCERAM, why is ESCERAM become so interesting to me? ESCERAM like no other, they are producing ceramic gloves, and major customer is actually from some of the local glove company like TOPGLOV, SUPERMX and others.. 


Lets us look at the result, wow ! First 2 quarter already 2.5 Million compare to past 4 quarter of 2014. A huge growth in their profit. That's why ESCERAM is climbing up slowly, and quietly.


Is this company owe a lot money? No ! Its a nett cash company with about 5 cent per share. And Return of Equity (ROE) is about 16%. Just see the balance sheet yourself, if you dont understand, just remember its a nett cash company ! A nett cash company mean they are free from high risk if economy or business slow down because they will not going to have problem paying bank debt.


Nothing seems exciting enough about this company? Because of the price have already increase a lot? By looking at the chart, today closing 0.325 show closing at new high and its very potential to fly in short term. WHY it's at such a high price but people still buying in? What they actually see from ESCERAM? Lets me reveal the simple secret !


Its still undervalue of course !! Lets us compare with PE of others gloves company and you will found the PE at 24. If you using excel force PE calculation, they are actually count the previous quarter 1-4 quarter, and ignore the quarter result of 1-2.


Which mean, if you check, Kossan PE is correct, but ESCERAM if rolling 4 quarter will be wrong. If using rolling 4 quarter, ESCERAM PE at only 13 ! 0.315/0.023= PE 13, EPS(QE 3+4+1+2). Its only about PE 13 as for now.


What if we projected the future growth and what will the PE look like ?

We use the first quarter result of latest year as our calculation, and we use conservation method to say coming quarter 3 and 4 give the same result as quarter 1:

Quarter 1 - Earning about 1.1 Million = EPS 0.007
Quarter 2 - Earning about 1.3 Million = EPS 0.007
Quarter 3 - Earning about 1.1 Million = EPS 0.007
Quarter 4 - Earning about 1.1 Million = EPS 0.007
                                               ToTal = EPS 0.028

EPS 0.028 X PE 10 = 0.28
EPS 0.028 X PE 15 = 0.42
EPS 0.028 X PE 20 = 0.56

This is calculation if coming quarter result maintain without growth ! If earning 2 million? That would be big flying up. 

Below is our group chat info provided at weekend, if you have brought at monday opening, you will have 1 cent earning already. Sikit sikit jadi bukit mah...

Logic Trading Analysis, [12.04.15 16:20]
Weekly LogicTrade:
ESCERAM (0100) Tutup 0.31
ESCERAM ialah glove sektor yang untung daripada US dollar naik dan business perkembangan yang sangat baik. Lihat lah CAREPLS yang naik begitu banyak walaupun keuntungan agak sama saja banding ESCERAM.

CAREPLS PE 49.23 (rolling 4 quarter)
ESCERAM PE 20.66 (tahun 2014) Masih Murah !

ESCERAM Q1 & Q2 sudah ada agak tahun lepas punya keuntungan ia itu EPS 0.013 banding tahun lepas 4 quarter 0.015. Oleh itu result Q3 Q4 yang akan datang pada bulan ini April dan Jul kalau maintain saja 1 mil + atau lebih banyak, ESCERAM potentil naik sampai 0.56 PE 15 saja.

Tutup 0.31, TP 1 0.435, TP 2 0.60 TP 3 0.80.

========================================================================

As a conclusion:

1. The company is promise to increase their efficiency of operation to reduce cost. (show in result note)
2. Glove sector remain in strong growth sector, and if any sickness spread again will boost demand (high possible like last year EBOLA).
3. Result improve dramatically, and its undervalue.
4. Price still have room to up, chart is preparing breakout.
5. The company in nett cash position, got chance giving out dividend soon.
6. Result out this month, can decide your decision is right or wrong very soon. (if result bad, then sell it)

My first target price 0.435, second TP 0.60, third TP 0.80.


Sunday, April 5, 2015

A Quick Reviews on Recent Bursa Malaysia Stock Market

April Fools just past, have you been fooled by Bursa Stock Market ? I guess most of you are not and feeling happy because goreng goreng month in March is really exciting, if you cannot make money at March, you need to seriously think about your trading plan and stock picks. And not to waste this APRIL !

I just want to do a quick reviews on recent Bursa Malaysia Stock Market. Look at FBMKLCI 2014 till now.


FBM Index as 3 April is at 1834.52, showing that its do not have much increase or drop comparing to First trading day of 2014. What it mean? Its simply mean index actually not yet perform. So we need to take all 30 company result to check whether index will worth higher?

Ambank POSITIVE Financial year 2015 3 quarter better than 2014
ASTRO POSITIVE Financial year 2015 4 quarter better than 2014 but price dint go new high
AXIATA NEGATIVE Financial year 2014 4 quarter better than 2013
BAT POSITIVE Financial year 2015 4 quarter better than 2014 but price dint go new high
CIMB NEGATIVE Financial year 2014 4 quarter poor than 2013, price also follow fall a lot
DIGI POSITIVE Financial year 2014 4 quarter better than 2013
FGV NEGATIVE Financial year 2014 4 quarter poor than 2013
GENM NEGATIVE Financial year 2014 4 quarter poor than 2013
GENTING NEGATIVE Financial year 2014 4 quarter poor than 2013
HLBANK POSITIVE Financial year 2015 2 quarter better than 2014
HLFG AVERAGE Financial year 2014-2015 result average
IHH POSITIVE Financial year 2014 4 quarter better than 2013
IOICORP NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2 quarter poor than 2014
KLCC POSITIVE Financial year 2014 better than 2013
KLK AVERAGE Financial year 2014-2015 result average
MAXIS AVERAGE Financial year 2013-2014 average
MAYBANK POSITIVE Financial year 2014 better than 2013
MISC POSITIVE Financial year 2014 better than 2013
PBBANK POSITIVE Financial year 2014 better than 2013
PCHEM NEGATIVE Financial year 2014 poor than 2013
PETDAG NEGATIVE Financial year 2014 poor than 2013
PETGAS NEGATIVE Financial year 2014 poor than 2013
PPB AVERAGE Financial year 2013-2014 average
RHBCAP POSITIVE Financial year 2014 better than 2013
SIME NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2 quarter is poor than 2014
SKPETRO NEGATIVE Financial year 2014 poor than 2013
TENAGA POSITIVE Financial year 2014 better than 2013
TM NEGATIVE Financial year 2014 poor than 2013 but outlook always positive
UMW POSITIVE Financial year 2014 better than 2013
YTL NEGATIVE Financial year 2015 2 quarter poor than 2014


As a conclusion, WOW ! 13 POSITIVE, 13 NEGATIVE, 4 AVERAGE ! Its a tie result ! That's why our index are moving a no up down comparing to 2014. 

Now looking at our currency which is many Malaysian worries as well. For me, I not worry at all ! If you know how to choose stock. Latest show RM slightly increase back value recently, Its a good sign to stock market right?  Although might continue go higher, buy lah export sector counter ! Dont scare !


Ok next oil price, also very much care by Malaysian because we got many oil related stock to goreng in Bursa Malaysia.


Wahh drop a lot already right? Volume also so many right? People say it will drop until break 40, you believe? Oil producer got so stupid or not to sell everybody cheap cheap ? You have logic analysis skill or not? You self better think think oh.. My believe is that oil will definitely one day climbing up rather than continue go low. That mean it's another boost to our stock market.

By looking at ASIAN countries STOCK INDEX such as Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Shanghai, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, all is pointing upwards. Sorry lazy to post chart out, yourself go see la !

Therefore I have a quick conclusion that OUR FBMKLCI INDEX at this point is reasonable and very high chance BREAK NEW HIGH LA (although maybe many corrections come along) ! (beware if you buy a lot index put warrant.. hahahaha)

I know you will worry about so call 1MDB issues, or political issue that Mahatir asking Ahjib to quit, let me tell you, before everything happen, stock market will do fine, dont worry too much unless you are planning to do a very very long term trading, which I not advise you to do so. You have to react faster in recent stock market and I will update you all if anything really go wrong in FACEBOOK.

Talk so much but dint give tips .. for me its not logic also la !

Lets see which stock we can focus, hantam, hoot ! 

Technology Sector, Export Sector and Electronics Manufacturer is my main focus.

Technology Sector : SYSTECH, EFFICIEN, NOVAMSC, MPAY, PRIVA, GHLSYS

Export Related Sector : CAREPLS, HOVID, MIECO, FLBHD, HEVEA

Electronics Manufacturer Sector: MIKROMB, PENTA, MMSV, JCY, EG, INARI


Happy Trading in APRIL ! More to comes !


I just sharing my though ! I not professional ! If I wrong, its normal !