Disclaimer: This is my personal logic trading analysis blog that show my own personal analysis. All information provided here are for sharing purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. Buy at your own risk.

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Friday, September 16, 2016

IQGROUP - The Next Super IOT LED Trends

Before you read my writing below, IQGROUP already covered by many bloggers and you may read what they have shared.







I will only share information that might not covered by all the blogger mentioned above. And you should know that this stock already "HIGHLY" monitor by so many different bloggers, and groups of trader. This stock is highly potential to be super bull and might be good for mid to long term as well. I have the urgency to share to everyone so that you may not miss out this Great company.

I also shared earlier on 5/9/2016 to premium member:

I seldom want to write about stock lately, because quality not much stock are attract my attention. This is the latest stock come into our radar IQGROUP (5107) Shariah Compliance.

Before I started, please watch video below to understand what is Internet of Things and what future potential growth of IQGROUP:

And video below are exactly what IQGROUP heading towards:

What's the benefit if Internet controlled LED system? Save cost, effective, also very convenient ! In our country we usually lagging, but country like JAPAN, Australia, USA many already start changing especially those big Factory that consume too much electrics !

Don't forget this is just first stage, when IQGROUP ready their commercial use, every household also can benefited from it! Just imagine you just take your phone and off your room light without getting up again ! When you go holiday and still can check any lighting at home, office, factory forgot to switch off ! Cool right ! Use your phone online to check almost everything ! 

Why we like IQGROUP? We like it for many reason. One of the obvious reason is that IQGROUP are Globally Presence, in another words, they are doing International Business. Not just LED lighting but also encompassing motion sensors and wirefree door entry products.

(From the picture above, it not yet show Australia, Switzerland, and also dint mention South East Asia) But from news of this link:


Mentioned IQGROUP have started to received order from these Country. Its MEAN that IQGROUP will GROWTH Rapidly and so far so Good, WHY ?

Let's look at recent quarter result. Wow Improving ! And let's look at the price movement:

Price have been big consolidation from January 2016 to August 2016, more than half year and it's time to show bottom and price have begin a new uptrend that may go above previous high. Why?

Look into the Balance Sheet of the company:

Nett Cash of about RM 56.77 Millions ! And no borrowing at all ! You know how much is that?

The company Total shares only 88 Millions. So little and so good ! It mean

Cash per share = RM 56.77 / 88 Millions Share

                           = RM 0.645.
It also mean when you Pay this company at around RM 2.24 (closing of 15/9/2016), you already own RM 0.645 of cash, and your stock cost to own this company is just RM 2.24 - RM 0.645 = RM 1.595

When you think RM 1.595 is expensive than many penny stock then you are wrong once again. Why?

Let me teach you a new LTA Method: Why come back to this picture again?

As we know, EPS for the company averagely at least 4-7 cent recent quarter. We take average EPS 5.5.

4 Quarter easily become EPS 5.5 x 4 = EPS 22.0

When you think RM 1.595 is expensive than many penny stock then you are wrong once again. BECAUSE :

RM 1.595 / 0.22 EPS = PE 7.25 only ! PE 7.25 Mean very low PE and Undervalues  !

Without Minus Cash, Current price RM 2.24 / 0.22 = PE 10.18 Still Cheap !

Don't forget I am using Average Result as Estimation only, What if next quarter result doing much Better ?

Study the balance sheet one more time !

If averagely the company post RM 5 Millions nett profit per quarter, it only need to take 4 year to get back TOTAL share capital back. (RM 5 million x 4 quarter x 4 year) = RM 80 Million !

Where to find such a company that potentially win everything back within next 4 year? Not to mentioned the company already have RM 56.77 million cash, this mean only need RM 80 million - RM 56.77 Million = RM 23.23 million more to go for this company to win back capital. About 1 Year only if next 4 quarter make RM 5 millions !

Sound complicated? No, look at Retained Earning, almost half of its share capital already ! Only need about 2 year time frame, for the company ready to give 1 : 1 Bonus Issued. At this level, company also ready to give bonus if they want to !

If you think numbers can lie and it's boring, please look at who are accumulating over the years:

Our local version of Warrant Buffet, the Famous value investor Fong Siling have been increasing his stake in IQGROUP:

Year 2015 Top 30 Shareholder:

Year 2016 Top 30 Shareholder:

You should know that from 712000 unit become 965000 unit, it's equal to 253000 unit different. I Am very sure his average price within RM 1.80 - RM 2.50. For year 2015-2016.

Not to mentioned about their own boss also increase % too !

Look at KESM chart : 

This is the patterm of KESM before it big spike up, and we also called it at this range many time if you check back our live channel.

There are similarity for KESM and IQGROUP. Both reach a peak previously and fall due to lower profit, but once profit recover strongly, the price big shoot up. You should know that KESM thereafter big Meletup as high as RM 8 !!

I see the same go to IQGROUP. This is just the starting point for IQGROUP. Once breaking RM 2.30, next will be RM 2.60. Once result out good in November, you will no more see it below RM 3.0. And of course, this estimation are on a very bullish market sentiment as well as really good result in November. There are no guarantee to be right because we totally no Idea whether the profit can do better.

But based on their future prospect, we highly believe the company can do much better !

What is the risk of buying this Company?

Look at Dividend History below you should able to notice, coming quarter result November IQGROUP will mostly announced Dividend ! Your risk is accidentally entitled dividend next quarter !!

Looking at dividend start to give on year 2014, you know that this company are very kind because one year give 2 time dividend ! And previous quarter increase to 6 cent so high ! Must pray hard this company continue do well then will benefit to everybody because buying at RM 2.24, the potential dividend return is about 3.5% ! What if dividend increase ! Dividend return increase !! If price fall mean higher Dividend return !! Win Win Strategy !

As a conclusion: 

1. IQGROUP doing latest technology which is related to Internet of Things.
2. IQGROUP products and future are fullfilled current trend.
3. IQGROUP doing international business. RM weaker benefit to them.
4. IQGROUP Nett Cash company without single Debt.
5. IQGROUP got super investor as Top 30 share holder.
6. IQGROUP share price just bottom up. More room to go.
7. IQGROUP very good dividend payout and potential give bonus in future.
8. IQGROUP eye by various trader and also bloggers.
9. IQGROUP just covered by LTA on September !

My short term TP RM 2.60, second TP RM 3.0, third TP RM 4.0. 

Above are purely sharing information that might have errors, miscalculation, and education purpose only.

Sunday, April 3, 2016

LTA - Watchlist for APRIL 2016

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This month we will remain notice some construction stock moving, but since last month already did well, I am not covered stock with construction theme.

I will special high light some special theme that related to call warrant, and warrants, and remember watchlist below may not suitable to hold until end of APRIL. Hit and run apply. 

After POS, DRBHICOM, MALAKOF, MMCCORP, PARKSON, AEON big Meletup last month, I believe the same theme may roll over which is Goreng the mother share and make huge profit from call warrant / warrant issues under the mother share. You can check back your own how many fold the call warrant have up, stock I mentioned above.

Remember it's higher risk to play such stock because it might not fundamentally sound super great but it's possibly the game at this few weeks, also possible to fail, please do not trade if you not understand.

Stock I spotted that may have similar trend that goreng mom up to earn Mom and warrant are like:

1. MINETEC & MINETEC-WA - Construction theme and used to received awards from GAMUDA few years back. Already mentioned in some here:


MINETEC closing on 01/04/2016 RM 0.095 
MINETEC-WA closing                 RM 0.03 (exercise RM 0.15, expired Nov 2019)

As long as goreng MINETEC to break RM 0.12 to RM 0.15, MINETEC-WA chances of double are extremely high, which mean MINETEC-WA shall move to RM 0.05-0.07. 

2. TA & TA-CF - Technically bottoming up and RM strengthen benefit to the company, and this company still quite undervalue.

TA closing RM 0.575

TA-CF closing RM 0.025 (exercise RM 0.70, ratio 0.75, expired 08/06/2016)

If TA mother go to RM 0.75,

TA-CF = RM 0.75 - RM 0.70 (exercise) / 0.75 (ratio) = RM 0.0666 (triple from current price)

if TA mother go to RM 0.80

TA-CF = RM 0.80 - RM 0.70 (exercise) / 0.75 (ratio)) = RM 0.1333 (5.3x from current price)

Due to panic buy and still have 2 month expiry date, trader usually trade exceed its value and overshoot a lot, we can see it from past experience on POS and others. 

3. SEACERA, SEACERA-WA, SEACERA-WB - Construction theme and technically look low risk. Cut if break RM 0.94. 

SEACERA closing RM 0.96

SEACERA-WA RM 0.29 (exercise RM 1.0, expired 16/05/2017)

SEACERA-WB RM 0.37 (exercise RM 1.0, expired 29/05/2019)

Due to long expiry date, once mother cross above RM 1.0, definitely will trigger trader to goreng the warrant up. 


VIVOCOM closing RM 0.28

VIVOCOM-WB RM 0.115 (exercise RM 0.24, expired 07/09/2018)

VIVOCOM-WC RM 0.185 (exercise RM 0.10, expired 22/01/2020) (lower premium compare to WB)

VIVOCOM-WD RM 0.185 (exercise RM 0.10, expired 08/07/2020) (lower premium compare to WB)

As long as VIVOCOM above RM 0.30, we can see all WB, WC, WD at least up RM 0.02 or more.

5. KEYASIC - Purely personal interest and think this company maybe will goreng up again. Without any warrant. 

Falling with volume decreasing, high chance to test again at around RM 0.235, if able to break shall move higher target. Company latest development with their new technology claims to be world fastest WIFI SD Card, WIFI USB Drive, which attract my attention, I put some bet on this company and hope their product and futures will do well. (already make losses for few quarters)

Disclaimer: Above sharing are purely personal watchlist without intend to influence or any intention. Trader please consult your dealer/remisier, and trade at your own risk. I do not take any responsibility on this post. If you lose, do not blame the author, because it's your own skill problem !

LTA - Watchlist Result for March 2016

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Price opening  Price closing  Gain
on 14 March 2016 on 31 March 2016  
KIMLUN                 RM 1.71                             RM 1.83,  RM 0.12
GAMUDA              RM 4.70                                RM 4.92, highest RM 5.0 on 28/03/2016 RM 0.22
GAMUDA-WE       RM 0.99                               RM 1.10 RM 0.11
SUNCON             RM 1.48                         RM 1.62, highest RM 1.71 on 25/03/2016 RM 0.14
GKENT               RM 1.61  RM 1.77, highest RM 1.88 on 30/03/2016 RM 0.16
MITRA                   RM 1.19                                RM 1.23, highest RM 1.28 on 21/03/2016 RM 0.04
GADANG            RM 1.95                           RM 2.09  RM 0.14
MRCB                   RM 1.18                                 RM 1.25 RM 0.07
TAANN                 RM 4.86                                RM 5.05 , highest RM 5.18 on 17/03/2016 RM 0.19
HSI-C17                 RM 0.365                               RM 0.33 , highest RM 0.425 on 21/03/2016  RM -0.035, 
AAX                      RM 0.30                                 RM 0.29, highest RM 0.31 RM -0.01
AIRASIA                RM 1.74                                 RM 1.83, highest RM 1.92 on 28/03/2016 RM 0.09
TUNEPRO              RM 1.38                                  RM 1.35, highest RM 1.46 on 16/03/2016 RM -0.03
RSENA                RM 0.405                                RM 0.405 unchange
GENTING           RM 8.88                                  RM 9.80 RM 0.92
GENTING-WA     RM 1.48                                  RM 2.23 RM 0.75
ASTRO                  RM 2.90                                   RM 2.99 RM 0.09

17 stock picks, 13 GAIN, 4 LOSS, 1 unchanged, if smart trader sell when profit not wait until 31 March are almost 16 stocks gain and 1 unchange only !

Logic Trading Analysis trading strategy are based on short term and we take profit fast within few day to weeks not month. Above result is only 2 weeks 3 days. 

It's a super good month for me in March, if you can't make profit, it's your own trading problems, don't put on blame on others !!

I am openly challenge you if you are good, put your stock picks out and not just acting childish, I meant to all other groups that like insult me behind.

We may mistake once in a while, but we look forward and not backwards like you did, I am sad for you !!

This is for you Terenceguh

Thursday, March 24, 2016

MINETEC - Blasting and Meletup the Bursa Market

MINETEC started as a drilling and blasting service in 1977 by the founder, Mr. Michael K S Chin, has since developed into one of the largest aggregate mining business in Malaysia. To date, Minetech Resources Berhad (MRB) operates an expanding network of 9 quarries around Malaysia and overseas. With over 30 years of industry experience, MRB has also positioned itself to provide quality and specialised civil engineering works including drill and blast services, earthworks, road pavement projects and building construction.

Why this company caught my attention? It's again very much related to construction theme and when I zoom detail onto this company, it's seems very interesting and I decided to invest onto it.

Although the company making a few quarter of losses, to me it's very normal because construction company always have their bad times and I hope it's good time coming soon. However look at their latest balance sheet, it's nett cash company !! RM 30.512 million cash while debt total around RM 19.33 million. 

30.512mil-19.33mil = RM 11.182 nett cash / total share issued 665.094mil = net cash per share RM 0.0168

Not much PENNY STOCK are net cash plus their business prospect are looking healthy and potential to growth when all the big projects roll out !

Imagine with so many quarry and premix at Most important Selangor state, MRT projects, highway will for sure need those product in futures.

We all know that MRT2 projects will be awarding soon, and the Tunneling job worth a big value of RM 12 billions. souce: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/02/11/bidding-starts-for-mrt-2/

*Apart from having a more expensive tunnel, MRT 2, also known as the Sungai Buloh-Serdang-Putrajaya line, will offer more main civil engineering and construction packages from the first line.

Is this all really going to benefit MINETEC? Looking at MINETEC, they are specialize in drilling, blasting, infrastructure works, rock drilling ! What else company can do all this? Yes it's MINETEC.

According to many professional in construction field, before starting this tunneling projects, soil stabilizing job needed to be done and who can do? MINETEC again !!

I can't explain too much on how much MINETEC will indirectly benefit from those big projects, it's all on future outlook and own views.

Lets looking some other reason that Buaya maybe interested to goreng this stock. A few good result here:

1. Share issed only 665 mil, 58% 385 mil floating on market only (easy to move)
2. Got warrant at price only RM 0.025 !! Exercise price RM 0.15 and expired Nov 2019 (still many years)

Buaya will definitely take the opportunity to collect the warrant because it's so damn cheap. And once they push the mother to above RM 0.10, it's easily turn double or triple for the warrant. (wild guess) I saw this happen to MPAY few year backs.

Looking at technical chart part, some collection and volume appear lately. I strongly believe this stock going to Meletup very soon. And it's very lucky we caught it before it Meletup. 

First time closing at RM 0.08 cent strongly after almost one year (about 9 month price below RM 0.08) , is it indicating a strong will of going higher? Why those buyer at below 0.08 don't want to take profit immediately?

DID YOU SEE WHAT I SEE or YOU still can't see ??

Something is going to Blast and Meletup kuat soon !! 

Monday, March 21, 2016


Hock Seng Lee Berhad (HSL)'s origins date back to the mid-1960s when the three eldest brothers of the Yii family established what was principally a sand dredging and land fill operation.
The company was named after the first timber dredging vessel, Hock Seng Lee which the brothers purchased to start their partnership. Hock Seng Lee sounds like "good business" in the local Hokkien dialect and indeed it was.
Hock Seng Lee Development Company Sendirian Berhad, as the company was first known, grew rapidly and was incorporated in January 1979.
For more than thirty years, HSL has taken on land reclamation projects of increasing size and complexity acquiring complementary expertise in soil improvement works, shore protection, drainage and water reticulation activities.
On 10 June 1996, HSL was listed on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia on the construction counter and it has been profitable every year since its listing.
It has diversified into a wide range of civil engineering and construction works, including prestigious road works and new township developments, tunnel boring and complex infrastructure projects.
Today, HSL some over 800 full time staff, thirty per cent of whom hold tertiary or technical qualifications. Its headquarters is in Kuching and its operations extend throughout the state of Sarawak.

Lets look back on the company price performance, ever since after the shoot up on 5 May 2013, it has been super huge sideways consolidate until last week 18 March finally super "strong breakout" with super volume. There are few things to highlight why this strong breakout happens:

1. Manage to increase order book to triple ! Worth Roughly RM 1.82 Billions Order Book
RM 58 Mil + RM 563 Mil + RM 1.2 Billions = RM 1.82 Billions
Add existing order book RM 621 Mil = RM 2.44 Billions Order Book

2. Bank Research upgrade to BUY  from HONG LEONG Research (RM 2.53) and MAYBANK Research (RM 2.40) - Both calculation seems not yet factor in the latest RM 1.7 Billions Pan Borneo Projects. 

After getting latest awards PAN BORNEO for RM 1.70 Billions, I am expecting more BANK research house will upgrade to BUY due to high order book and high potential to get more awards again.

3. SARAWAK ELECTION is almost around the corner ! Expecting APRIL - MAY

Why is this important? Although everybody think the same party will win, nothing to be surprise, but it can be a extra vitamin to kick this stock move higher. Trader likes story and theme related. Not just HSL, other Sarawak counter will possible goreng up before ELECTION or After election. This can obviously see from 3 years back, after 5 May 2013 Election, price shoot up immediately !

That's is jut not convinces enough for a real investor because construction company usually very high in debt, therefore many earning usually gone into bank interest payment. However extra bonus given investor to consider HSL is because its 100% Debt free company, and Cash Rich ! 

Besides construction, HSL also developing housing project, latest project seems doing pretty well:

High end housing selling each roughly RM 1 Mil, 44 units = RM 44 Millions revenue. (80% sold)

Still have other mid range housing if you check their website.

Lets us sneak peak some on going project: 

I think, with their current order book, and new order book, HSL seems going to continue GOOD BUSINESS until Years 2020 !!

With such, as a conclusion: 

1. Very strong History Construction Company In Sarawak
2. Financially sound and it's a Nett Cash company, Debt free

2. Dividend payout ratio about 20%

3. Latest Value of projects in hand roughtly stands at RM 2.44 billion 

4. Expecting to continue to be benefit from Pan-Borneo Highway Project (RM 16 Billions Total) 

5. Expecting to continue benefit from Kuching sewerage project worth RM 4 Billions that would be implemented in 8 phases. (1 & 2 phases awarded to HSL) 

6. After listing of 20 years, every quarter make handsome profit

7. Very strong relationship with Sarawak Government

8. Best Sarawak Election Theme Counter, latest April-May

9. Finally breakout with strong volume closing high at RM 2.10

10. Major Bank upgrade BUY with high TP RM 2.53, RM 2.40, may more will upgrade. 

My personal target for short term RM 2.20, mid term RM 2.50, long term to be re review RM 2.80.

Sunday, March 13, 2016

Logic Trading Analysis(LTA) - Watchlist for March 2016

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After the big fall of January till Early March, it's time we shall come back to pay attention to our stock market after DJIA posting strong gain pointing upwards, which will definitely kick all other country market to be more positive, and of course to FBMKLCI as well.

Refer to here:

I not here to explain how overall market outlook will be, just take note if DJIA suddenly close below 17000 again this week then we may need to revise our plan. Or else you may pay attention to some of the stock pick below.

Since RM getting stronger, export theme about USD over, market struggle to find new theme or stock worth to collect or goreng stock, obviously market shy away for almost 3 month. BUT I here to tell you, take note on some of the stock below which might have potential to go higher. (I am not SIFU, if I wrong, I not take any responsibility, scolding are not welcome)

One of the theme may come next shall be Construction related (may just last a short time). As we already spotted some of the construction counter begin action.

Refer here: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/10/26/construction-sector-main-beneficiary-of-budget-2016/

I am expecting more projects such as the Refinery and Petrochemicals Integrated Development (Rapid) in Pengerang, Johor, the Pan Borneo Highway, mass rapid transit 2 (MRT2), light rail transit 3 (LRT3) and PRIMA housing, flood mitigation will be awards and start soon. (many area kick start selling PR1MA housing project)

Construction index have been long depressed and sideways consolidated for half year, and it's getting closer to 200days moving average.

Stock below are some consider good construction counter we may look see for short term.

KIMLUN - (one of my Meletup stock picks on last year) ALL major bank upgraded to further buy and higher target price after getting PAN BORNEO PROJECTS. I believe KIMLUN will bagged few more projects soon ! Upgrade to BUY, TP: RM2.23 !!

Refer more about KIMLUN here: 

This stock picks was shared in premium group during 3/12/2015. Already more than 20% profit.

GAMUDA & GAMUDA-WE -GAMUDA have passed 200 days moving average after 9 month of consolidate. It's very high possible to goreng towards RM 5.0 soon looking at latest list GAMUDA-WE demand. GAMUDA-WE (closed RM 0.965) exercise price RM 4.05, equal to RM 5.015.

Due to long expiry date till year 2021, high premium of GAMUDA-WE are expected to make it move above RM 1.0 very very soon (maybe Monday). Note that if market did not crash or fully recover on year 2018 onwards, GAMUDA will confirm go above RM 6.0 due to heavy construction works towards national goal of WAWASAN 2020, another things is before 2018, Malaysia must ready for better infrastructure, greater Kuala Lumpur to cope with TPPA.

(If GAMUDA reach RM 5.0, warrant without premium should trade at RM 0.95, but due to long expiry date, normally 10-30% higher premium will be given. Therefore Gamuda-WE will be roughly between RM RM 1.045 - RM 1.235) Remember this is based on market stable and mini bull scenario, if bear come attack again all will diminish, don't ever act like crying baby and complaining the tips doesn't work ! Do your own homework !


SUNCON - After the big spike last Friday, it has move into uncharted territory. This new IPO never move much since last year IPO. However something important to note that which is During the big fall of January-March 2016, it continue moving sideways and totally did not fall. This is obvious and strong signal that something good is coming. I assume it can go further. Maybank TP RM 1.65. Whether it will have some correction before Meletup further or straight Meletup all the way are up to the market decide.

GKENT - Another construction that still doing well in year 2016. This month will post its result, if good then will first challenge RM 1.70, then next RM 2.0 should not be any problem. And of course if bad then will slowdown its uptrend movement. But with its high order book in hand, this counter remain strong in outlook.

Refer some here:

MITRA & MRCB & GADANG - All seems potential to move higher. Remember to put in watch list !

After sharing Construction stock picks, some other stock picks that in my watch list are such as: 

TAANN - I been telling about this stock in groups when it's below RM 4.65.  I am expecting it to hit back RM 5.0 soon due to free bonus of 1 : 5 coming soon.

HSI-C17 - This is highly speculative and super high risk call warrant betting Hang Seng Index up in near term. An overnight of super DJIA +218.18, HSI FUTURES +331.0, I guess Monday gonna gap up at least RM 0.38 - RM0.40 (and I already brought it :)). If DJIA wanna big show one more day up, then this HSI-C17 and other HSI call warrant gonna Meletup so damn kuat. But please, it may not work out right totally and if you don't know how to trade, stay away and don't touch and lose and cry baby. Monitor DJIA futures often. 

AAX, AIRASIA, TUNEPRO - This 3 company are best performer after February result release. You cannot ignore this company because some people

You can find people are almost want to 

 Sell Your Car, Sell Your House. Time To Sai Lang for AIRASIA (JOKE)
Refer here: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/92726.jsp 

I did not give a very high target price but RM 1.80 and RM 2.0 are achievable. This is simply because turnaround from previous quarter with lower oil cost and next quarter will be reporting on Feb, March and April result, which is also peak season for travelling especially during Chinese New Year. During this 3 month oil price remain low and I can notice many friends start travelling to Japan and other country already !

AAX - This would be much more exiting compare to AIRASIA because of cheap price and finally turnaround to profit after so many quarter since IPO at RM 1.20. Looking at the volume never been so huge already know that the demand are extreme and expectation towards higher price are very high. I looking at a target of RM 0.40.

TUNEPRO - Riding the wind of AIRASIA and AAX, start to see big volume and very low price too. Latest result show very stable improving income which are consider a very safe entry. My first target at RM 1.50 which is also very conservative.

RSENA - The strong volume spike on Thursday hint something good is coming, guess they have finally find the right company to be acquire. Even they cant find any within 3 years time, there are still cash RM 0.46 per shares in account. If they able to find, then definitely will unlock this company value and further higher to go !

(from RSENA Annual Report year 2015, it's not hard to find, it's whether you put effort to read and understand it or not.)

GENTING, GENTING-WA & ASTRO and some other INDEX stock shall move higher due to FBMKLCI gonna break 1700 level once again.

Are you ready to GORENG?


Logic Trading Analysis