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Monday, September 22, 2014

IRIS - Ace Market Super Star Rising


Good day everyone, if you missed my previous post, I hope you not missed this again. IRIS Berhad will definitely a hot ace market super star in coming weeks. Everyone in stock market should know about IRIS or at least see IRIS appear in most active trading page right? 



First of all, before I share some of my logic trading analysis on IRIS, at least you should know what is IRIS Berhad doing. I believe most of the people have a bad perception on IRIS or think IRIS is a penny stock, and fried stock. Many people trap in IRIS many years ago, but today, I want to tell you, my logic tells IRIS have changes to a strong and a potential Ace Market Super Star in coming days. Why? 

Many years back, IRIS was a small IT company but recently years they have expand to a diversify company which brings IRIS back into Profitable company and getting stronger in the diversify business field. You can see they are doing green technology, and building house with KOTO technology (cheap and super fast building method, some at Malaysia) at Papua New Guinea, even education recently. I may not want to get into too detail of their business, you can look at their 2014 annual report here for more details. CLICK HERE <--- 



Lets look at how IRIS stock price movement first. If you look at the chart, IRIS begin rally on January 2014, why? Logic say its all because The Ministry of Finance have open tender for Tourist Tax Refund Scheme to 4 Company in Malaysia, and IRIS is one of the bidder. Refer Here <-- 

With this news announced,  IRIS and rival competitor(Mpay) share price raise pretty much from 0.2 to 0.615 highest. And of course due to a long long waiting, investor have forgot and start worry whether IRIS secure the project or not, which we see the price start fall down. Just until recently share price start picking up with volume ! Logic tells, its a pre-plan shares collection for big players and insider because TRS project is a huge potential for company future growth !!

(you can see how MPAY thirsty for it, they have immediately gain investor become a huge stake holder just for bid this project, but sorry to say, its belong to IRIS now !)



Another factor cause IRIS share price to fall is their profit suddenly turn red for last quarter. Well, for me its a very small issue because We can see that the revenue is still maintain well, and most probably some of their investment and business not yet ready for profit. I don't like to comment in details because those information you can find from other places. I focus on my logic trading analysis. Its probably to put a red quarter result to make investor cut loss and sell. But its seems the share price not falling way back to 0.20 since rally, its mean that is just a trick from the company !
 

If you are so much worry about the other business of IRIS Berhad can sustain or not, its much more easy to read their last quarter result and you will see how positive they think on their coming business year !!


Lets back focus on the why its time for IRIS to be a hot super star. Its because they get the Tourist Tax Refund Scheme tender !! Look at the details of letter of awards from Kastam Diraja Malaysia. When you look at the LOA, you might be a bit blur and not sure what it mean. 

Refer what the boss say here: (latest) <--

Iris and foreign partner (Global Blue) will invest RM 155,09200.00 for this TRS project and get 15% commission from GST REFUND SERVICES (its 6% refund) and IRIS get 15% from it <-- 
It could be total GST refund from foreigner and IRIS get 15% !!

Small investment and big return !! WHY ? Read below



Just look at how big is the tourism contribution pass few years. I am very sure this TRS project owned by IRIS Berhad is something very very super good news to them.  

Have a simple estimate calculation based on year 2013: 

                                        65.44 Bil (65,440,000,000) x 6% = 3,926,400,000. Its 3.9 Bil !
                                        3.9 Bil (3,926,400,000) x 15% = 588,960,000. Its 588 Million !

IRIS 51% and Global Blue Company 41% = IRIS get RM 299.88 Mil a year !! 

Which is 10 time more than their current annual income !!!



And IRIS partner for TRS project is a powerful company as well !! Because they dealing with the recently world largest IPO ALIBABA GROUP !! You can research more what this group doing with Alibaba. And once this groups success enter into Malaysia, for sure its mean its have high potential Alibaba business will be related to them soon ! You should know all company got a mini relationship with ALIBABA is fly sky rocket - EFFICIENT, GDEX, GHLSYS.


After so much quick info, my logic analysis tell me, IRIS Berhad is a must buy counter.
Price still cheap, not yet reach previous high at 0.615.

1. IRIS after get TRS project, they are a super star now.
2. In coming years they are high potential switch to mainboard, usually will fried much higher when can go to mainboard, refer OCK, SMRT, REDTONE, MMODE, GDEX many more.
3. Its very cheap counter.
4. Its super growth mode counter.
5. Its have no reason to ignore this counter.
6. They might got chance to deal with ALIBABA
7. TA investment give a TP of 0.675 before they get TRS project ! Refer here: <---

My first TP 0.455 , second TP 0.50, third TP 0.615. After reach all the TP, it will become RM 1 and above!

7 comments:

  1. Dear Writer, you are very right. but there's also a risk in iris. and i do have some doubts that it will have a huge impact.

    1. what if there's a sudden change in investment? lets say a crisis like hovid & carotech which will drag the company down?

    2.What will happen if the outlet participants is limited and unlike those in europe or thailand which has a high no of outlet participants which may cause tourist unable to claim? if im not mistaken, iris is paid on the basis of the refund figure. lets say Rm1000 refund then iris make Rm150?

    (china accent) secondaly, does malaysian customs have the capability to collect GST from all businesses? estimation from experts its worth RM6bil-Rm12bil in the first year.

    3. Tourist refund scheme is definitely larger than the gst compliance software business. but its not the ultimate of all. a larger fund is available in the contract if there is such a company who is huge and have access to every corner of malaysia to COLLECT GST ON BEHALF OF MALAYSIAN CUSTOMS?

    4. GST refund for retailers, suppliers, manufacturers and the list goes on.
    as we all know GST in malaysia charges every supplier chain and the supplier/retailer have to claim back their 6% from the malaysian customs.
    my million dollar question is, Does Malaysian customs have the capability to do the refund? or they are going to engage a 3rd party to do the refund on behalf of malaysian customs?

    my hypothesis and a retarded business sense told me that The ultimate gainers/beneficiaries of GST isnt tourist refund or software. the ultimate one is NO 3. subsequently NO 4. then Tourist refund and lastly GST compliance software.
    putting asides accounting/audit firms etc... that have none listed in KLSE

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Alvin,

      I understand your consent on IRIS future. But before you continue read my comment, please do read out my first post.

      Logic trading analysis is use to fight/follow/against the big player move. It doesn't matter if IRIS fail to make lots of income from TRS. But its definitely a good reason for use in this trading game. As long as my trading plan can win help retailer win the big player, its reach the goal.

      Delete
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