Disclaimer: This is my personal logic trading analysis blog that show my own personal analysis. All information provided here are for sharing purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. Buy at your own risk.

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Thursday, January 30, 2020

GLOVES STOCK - SARS VS WUHAN (SUPERMX)

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WE all know that WUHAN VIRUS has causing this Glove stock rally, many have question that how far it can go.
Let me answer you. 
Lets us recall back 2003 SARS outbreak, to do some case studies and then only refer back our current situation.

SARS was first discovered in Asia in February 2003. The outbreak lasted approximately six months as the disease spread to more than two dozen countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia before it was stopped in July 2003.
So lets us see the past performance of Glove stock in Malaysia.

TOPGLOV 

Due to Bonus or Split, the price may look cheap. It has move from RM 0.15 fly to RM 0.70 almost 4.6x times.

KOSSAN

Also due to Bonus or split price look cheap. Price from RM 0.177 fly to roughly RM 0.50 almost up 2.8x times.

SUPERMX

From RM 0.42 fly to RM 1.37. 3.2x times. 

Up to date, WUHAN has already 7.7k confirmed case. 



How about SARS ?

SARS total case only 8098 cases while WUHAN virus just a few day already 7736 and it's still increasing every single day. Some more 12k case suspect. It's almost certainly that it will be worst than SARS ! 

If we based on this 2003 chart, we can see that a delay for all the glove stock to move, as during that time information, market movement still slower, market wait until see result good only move, but it's different compare to now, our market now very efficient and fast, so we can see all glove stock start reacting already. But how much more we can go?

KOSSAN

KOSSAN already break new high, so we believe that it's has less room to go already. 

HARTA

HARTA still way far to previous high, so still got room to go.

TOPGLOV

TOPGLOV testing previous high soon, so still potential go a bit higher or go new high.

SUPERMX

SUPERMX still far away to previous new high, that seems to be quite attractive anything below RM 2.20.

Since WUHAN virus mostly can be worst than SARS, then glove stock have double triple up during SARS time, we expect this round at least up 50% or more for all the GLOVES stock. So still got more room to go.

SUPERMX is matter of time go above RM 2.0. 




Saturday, January 25, 2020

INARI - The True and The Ugly Face Surface

We are the only call buy and have faith with INARI when it big fall down.

read here:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/logictradinganalysiss/2019-12-21-story-h1481886884-INARI_Don_t_Judge_Too_Far_Away_As_Nothing_Has_Change.jsp

INARI
recent story many have forgotten as usual, finally it's time for me to share why from INARI recent story we can see the true and ugly face of the market.

Let's us recall back what have happen to INARI recently.


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/inari-shares-end-14-lower-following-news-us-chipmaker-selling-unit


This rumour Broadcom sell of RF unit has cause INARI big fall.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/broadcom-seeks-buyer-for-rf-wireless-chip-unit-11576693454

When this "journal" come out, which has no prove and real fact, market react so panic and big sell down next day.

From there, we can see many sifu, blogger, keyboard warrior come out to pour more water.

And talk like they know Broadcom going to sell RF unit, INARI got no more future, INARI prospect very uncertain, INARI on big risk to lost order from Broadcom, Broadcom have traits to keep selling of their business, INARI is in downtrend, and many more stupid assumption, idiotic forecast that have no real prove.

Here we show you a few example,

Example 1 : 



Self make assumption Apple will take over Broadcom's RF unit, saying the bottom still very far, uncertainty too high. We can see that this blogger has totally an ignorance without knowing facts and INARI business.


Really admire this blogger that able to write a long story about Broadcom Ceo Hock Tan, to tell everyone that he high chance sell of RF unit business. Steady bomb bi bi this blogger, maybe he got yumsheng with the Ceo.


Example 2,


Some more discussing other's company future with friends, and seems that they know Broadcom direction better than Broadcom Ceo Hock Tan, again talking about INARI future is uncertain at the time when INARI is falling.

Example 3,



This one worst, Drawing imaginary chart saying much more falling will come, and simple saying, his imagination is really broken like how the page name itself.

Example 4, 



This is the worst I feel, taking opportunity to promote system, saying they have give sell call earlier. Whether they did or not doesn't matter, it give impression that this stock is downtrend. We may see they give buy call again when price go above RM 1.90+. Why don't they give a call when price shoot down at RM 1.60 + ? Because this kind of technically analysis always based on moving average, so its obvious going to be wait until all mars line align up only call.

There are so much more keyboard warrior which we din't want to highlight because it's too many.

Let us see what is INARI price now.


INARI price has recovered and go even higher from where it fall ! It's prove that the panic sales, Ugly face is wrong ! We shared our view after it fall in our blog. You can read again here:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/logictradinganalysiss/2019-12-21-story-h1481886884-INARI_Don_t_Judge_Too_Far_Away_As_Nothing_Has_Change.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/logictradinganalysiss/2019-12-23-story-h1481912738-BROADCOM_TO_SALE_RF_UNIT_NO_SUCH_DEAL.jsp

As a conclusion of this articles, 

We like to tell every investor, do not simply believe all the news in the market, all the make up story by the market or blogger, all the sohai assumption, all the stupid rumours, all the funny chart expectation and some half cook sifu.

The intention of this blog is not humiliating other sifu or blogger, but it's a lesson we all should learn, never make up anything that you don't know, never believe anything is not fact !


What we can see is that APPLE sign more deal with Broadcom and it worth $15 Billion ! Which can last till 2023, 3 years from now !


Saturday, December 14, 2019

NOTION - FAMOUS INVESTOR & GURU IS START BUYING

We get to know a some famous investor and guru start buying up NOTION ! That's why lately big move up, and we get the opportunity to studies it and found that more to go !! You should read why we said so, and why they buying ! 

NOTION (8803)
catch our attention as we think recent rise is just the beginning and still many people haven't notice this stock going to be next big black horse. To cut short, we look at the chart first.


Recent stock price has been hitting the past two big trend high, and this round we expecting once break RM 1.0 then a super rally will come. Do watch very carefully coming few day movement as it will happen breakout soon.

NOTION have been strong uptrend recently, recent price have hit support and higher low have been form, we expecting a big spike up will come very soon.

We have some reason that NOTION will further up as the company has been very positive with this year earning, we can get the information from latest quarterly result.

We can see that management already targeting a sales revenue of RM 320 mil for coming year 2020. This is a big increase compare to last year, which will be a confirmation of coming February result will be improve greatly.

Even they expect growth can be go to RM 400 mil !! Why so confident? Because they have secure a new Big customer ! 

LOOK at past few year Revenue only average RM 230 mil, imagine when year 2020 Revenue hit RM 320 mil ! which is more than 5 year of new high ! Remember this and later we study how much price potential to go !

So stock price should easily go above RM 1.30 which is the high during year 2017.

News have been reporting they going to have strong growth in coming years. But how strong it could be? Let us share with you.

The key is their new business EMS !


They have compared themself with VS, SKPRES AND ATAIMS, which all riding the big bull before due to one same client = DYSON ! 

Any company manage to grab contract from DYSON have fly double up ! Because DYSON is superb !


NOTION ONLY ROUGHLY PE 8 !

If NOTION go PE 15 like other PEERS 

PRICE SHALL GO RM 1.79 ! 

Just look at overall peers PE ! Then you will notice NOTION PE is super low, super undervalues compare to peers ! How??

Since company expecting a very good result for year 2020, and even better than year 2019, we take


Since management expecting RM 320 mil revenue, which is RM 80 mil per quarter, we do not greedy, just take 10 million net profit per quarter to calculate EPS, that will give out annual net profit of 40m.

40 Million profit / NOTION 334.74m total share = RM 0.1194 EPS

Based on this forward PE calculation, last Friday closing price RM 0.955 is only about PE 8 ! (RM 0.955/ EPS RM 0.1194 = PE 7.99)


Even the boss also target their stock price to go 3x (RM 3.0+) by year 2024. It's a very bullish statement as the boss already see their new business going to boost up their earning !

Moreover, the company are highly possible to call for bonus issue next year !



Look at Share capital and retained profit, next quarter profit again then retained profit already more than share capital, this mean company can easily call for a 1 to 1 bonus issue !! That will definitely boost stock price higher, this can look at recent case like MI and UWC, both called BONUS and big fly up !

As a conclusion,

1. NOTION will start a big rally up like DUFU, PENTA, FRONTKN, and you should not miss it.
2. NOTION new business going to boost coming year earning.
3. NOTION PE still very double low compared to peers.
4. NOTION going for a strong breakout from long term downtrend line soon.
5. NOTION very soon can give bonus issue by next year and price will big up like MI, UWC.

My own personal "hope" for short term price to reach RM 1.10, mid term hope RM 1.30, long term hope RM 2.50.

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Tuesday, April 9, 2019

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Monday, April 1, 2019

HIL Industries Bhd - Blow Up Like Malaysia Flying Cars

HIL Industries Bhd. (8443) come into our radar very closely lately, and today we going to share it to you very quick and simple way that why we should monitor closely this company.

Before we mention about earning, what the company do, please do read the chart we show you first.

Immediately we view into the company stock price chart first :


Look like Malaysia style Flying Car right ??


OK let's be serious and read below carefully :

What the chart tell us is :

1. For the past two years price has been falling from peak RM 1.0 and drop until lately lowest RM 0.465 and start rebound to RM 0.61.
2. For the past few year daily price movement has been very low volume and price movement not moving in a normal way, because of too low transaction. (some time big up, some time big down).
3. Only recently suddenly after result in February, price start have daily transaction and movement.
4. Volume start coming in.

Above is just the Part 1 why we should watch closely this stock. 
We proved to you Part 1 is valid and it's not happen once, it's already many time in this company.


In year 2005 we can see obviously no much trading movement and volume, but once go into year 2006, volume suddenly in and daily price movement become normal, then price shoot triple up from RM 0.17 to as high as RM 0.54 (year 2017). 



In year 2007 after shoot high, start no daily volume and price start have funny daily movement then when 2008 April volume suddenly in, price movement back to normal, price shoot even higher to RM 0.70 +. 


There after 2013 happen again, when price have no volume and funny daily movement, suddenly in year 2014 volume spike in and daily got trading movement. Price shoot all the way up again, and hit highest in 2017 to RM 1.0+. 

3 cases from the same company have already show that the stock price always rocket shoot up when got volume and traded normally daily. So let us look into most recent chart again :

We can obviously see daily price movement back to normal with volume. Why is this happen so often in this company? Is this the very good opportunity for us to tap in once again? 

To me the answer is very obvious already. 

Part 2 why we should watch closely this stock.
If the answer still not obvious, we shall look into recent financial result :



Revenue new high, and profit new high !

That's the reason price start recovering?

Wow got RM 0.0175 cent dividend which will be entitle ex date on end of April 2019!

Not that simple, actually more are coming !

It has RM 112.94 million cash, its equal to RM 0.338 per share, so damn cash rich ! More than half of its share price !!

And retained profits already ready to give 1:1 BONUS ISSUES !!
(maybe next quarter announce? since share floating in the market are so little !)


Part 3 why we should watch closely this stock.


Proton New X70 selling like hot cake !


But Perodua Aruz selling like hot ladys !



Perodua Aruz sales speed up like the car already can fly ! 

Why I show you car sales? Because HIL Industries Bhd are car parts supplier ! That's why every few year the price spike up when got new hot car model lah ! Now you know and it's still not too late !

Use some very simple calculation, PROTON 8500 unit + PERODUA ARUZ 14000 unit = 22500 unit.

Let say HIL can only earn each car RM 50 already confirm that HIL can make a net RM 1.125 million !

Not yet even mention other car models, and the property sales, definitely result will be continue good !

Part 4 why we should watch closely this stock.

The company boss been buying non stop lately ! The market only have very limited stock left and all the company boss combine up should have already more than 70% holding. Will they privatize it??


The Net tangible Asset worth RM 1.0, so if take privatization surely higher than current price of RM 0.60+ only.


You may again saying that this stock move up was purely due to a single quarter result improve, which not going to lasting, but we can tell you that it's not the case. 

Part 4 why we should watch closely this stock.

Its not HIL alone making move, it's whole industry that involve in car parts !! 

Lets look at MCEHLDG a company that supply car parts to local car industry. 


We can see obvious rebound in year 2019 from RM 0.45 move to RM 0.63. It's a hint that the whole industry have wake up by New Proton, New Perodua car and other New car in the market.


DRBHCOM that selling PROTON car already show some rebound up. 


MBMR that selling PERODUA car even show big rally up up !

All above already show that HIL (8443) is ready to blow up like flying cars, and we not even yet mention their property sales that start billing which will definitely post better result in May.


As a conclusion, 

1. HIL (8443) has show price action and is ready to move.
2. HIL (8443) has very good fundamental and business prospect.
3. New car model has boost HIL business.
4. The whole car industry has already moving up, it's a big trend.
5. Company director keep on buying showing potential of privatization.
6. The company is ready to give BONUS ISSUE.


My own personal "hope" for short term price to reach RM 0.90, mid term hope RM 1.10, longer term if got bonus issue RM 1.30

Sunday, January 13, 2019

RGB - The JACKPOT MACHINE Is READY TO SPIN


Yes it's time and best time to consider RGB (0037) again ! Why ? Many obvious reason will be list down when you finish reading it.

RGB is a very unique company in Malaysia as the only Slot Machine maker and service maintenance company which already quite well known in trader eye as used to be invested by COLD Eye the famous Malaysia Investor. 

Let this article tell you how much more business potential for RGB as RGB recent great sales are coming from CAMBODIA ! (quarterly report mentioned INDOCHINA, assume to be VIETNAM, CAMBODIA, MYAMAR)



http://asianews.it/news-en/Casino-boom-in-Cambodia:-+-53-per-cent-in-2018-only-45865.html


However we usually don't explain on how the business too detail as we like to put fact on table and let them talk themself.

First for most, quarterly report : (READ BELOW closely STRONG INFO EXPOSED !)


Very obvious, we can see RGB have making very good improvement recent years, and latest quarterly result even post quarterly new high at RM 11.9 million net profit !!

This is not enough right? Why ? Because we have doubt for coming quarterly result. That's already solved because we know how to interpret information as below:

Source from this link : HERE 

The news above mentioned that highly confident that profit before tax for full year can hit RM 40 million profit before tax.

Let us just assume lah, if really RM 40 million profit before tax, then coming February quarter can post what result?

Just minus RM 40 million whole year to the announced 3 quarter which is :

RM 40 mil - RM 13.2 mil (3rd quarter) - RM 8.8 mil (2nd quarter) - RM 6.7 (3rd quarter) = RM 11.3 mil for coming quarter result.

Minus TAX should at least have RM 8-9 Million net profit which is way better than last year only 6 million ! 
50 % increase !!

Not enough?


It's nett cash company with roughly RM 0.055 cent per share !
So definitely a safe and healthy company !

SOME MORE ! 


Source : HERE 

The company servicing department already in planing to list IPO in HONG KONG ! And it will be this year ! This will confirm unlock the company value further as IPO in HONG KONG definitely get very good valuation !!

Good enough and lets look at the price chart, has it low enough? Should we chase ? 


What?? Weekly chart also show Technically it's still at bottom because of recent trade war and bad sentiment? Such good opportunity to buy at bottom, risk reward seems to be great !! Set cut if break RM 0.19 and potential upside target at least 5 time of cut loss which is RM 0.25 !! Lose 1 cent and win 5 cent ! Wow !

What about daily chart ?


Even more obvious that RM 0.205 sideways breakout with volume ! It's a good early bullish sign that still not yet up too much ! There is a gap at RM 0.25 at September 2018, could it be a big hint this bull wanna fill the gap very soon? Its definitely a yes to us !

As a conclusion :

1. RGB already posting strong solid result over years.
2. Cambodia, Vietnam CASINO all boom and increase over the year.
3. RGB income can be recurring due to servicing so no risk running out of sales.
4. RGB service department going to IPO in HK.
5. RGB price still at bottom and just almost turn up.
6. RGB is a net cash per share RM 0.055 cent company with very little debt.
7. RGB doing unique business that no much competitor in Malaysia.

My own personal "hope" for short term price to reach RM 0.25, mid term hope RM 0.30.