Disclaimer: This is my personal logic trading analysis blog that show my own personal analysis. All information provided here are for sharing purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. Buy at your own risk.

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Sunday, June 23, 2019

Land & General Bhd (L&G) - IS READY FOR BOTTOM UP

Land & General Bhd in short L&G (3174) is under our LTA Coverage as we see this stock is ready for a bottom up very very soon.

We choose to unveil to everyone at this moment because it's stock price still not yet move much. So that everyone can notice this undervalues stock !



This company has been long history in Bursa as already listed in BURSA stock market since 1968. Can last until today simply mean it's not a company that doing tricky stuff and go delist after some time. It's a solid and profitable company.

It's a company major in Housing Property, Township Development and Education.

To cut short, we tell you why we think L&G (3174) is ready for a bottom up very soon :



It's very obvious that latest two quarter Revenue and Profit is already improving and new High Revenue Profit for the past 3 years. Look at latest quarter already almost contribute 1 EPS, if next 3 quarter remain the same, rolling PE will become less than 5 !

To be sure it can sustain or doing better, we notice that latest quarterly result report under Prospect mention this :


After reading this prospect, we made no doubt immediately press our buy button to collect as soon as we can because we expecting this company stock price will hit bottom and rocket up soon. Once everyone have a deep study about it.

Key point above :

1. Stamp Duty waiver - Government initiative to boost property market
2. Bank negara reduce 25 point interest rate - Reduce buyer burden and increase investor appetite
3. Most importantly expecting coming financial year may improve.

And of course we have more study whether it's true and whether market buy the idea that Property Market really Bottom up, or at least L&G alone able to bottom up?


From this picture, 11/6/2019 just this month news have reported that PROPERTY market may finally bottomed out !!
But we need more evidence that the Property theme is exactly ready to be bring up into Bursa Market as trader need more reason to buy up the stock.

Yes, its the rate cut that potential come in July, which we expecting our Bank Negara might also follow to cut rate further down in future. And we already see Bank Negara did once last month, do not surprise that they lower the rate again in coming next few month. As whole world are cutting interest rate ! Lower rate mean better sentiment for Property Stock !

We may see a bull run of Property stock happen again like years 2013 and now is still at bottom !



We can also see that new Malaysia Government has putting many initiative to recover property market. Apart from giving waived, they push bank to give more access to first time home buyer !

More interestingly many Malaysian think Malaysia property already over price however for foreigner from Hong Kong, China, Western, Japan, Malaysia property are still very affordable and cheap !!


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/hong-kong-investors-snap-affordable-property-malaysia-eye-retirement

You can watch how Hong Kong artist laugh at our Malaysia Property that selling In Million but still consider cheap for them : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYINMi8iPz0

We see this as an opportunity for investing in L&G as they have huge planning this year and we see it start billing and expecting more to come.


We have learn that during last year L&G already planned great timing to launch property this year and it worth RM 4.2 billion !!

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/lg-plans-launch-three-projects-klang-valley-worth-rm42b-next-year

Before we went too far, let's come back to see whether L&G have any values in term of stock price whether can go higher or not. 


We can obviously see that the company have asset worth RM 0.369 if they sell everything off, and we expecting more because L&G have many land and some may not yet revalues !!


Looking at their big cash balance, RM 218 million is equal to RM 0.0736 cent, which mean if we buying at RM 0.155 (last closing price as at 21/6/2019, 50 % half of it is cash and it's big because many company have less than 10% of cash compare to stock price.



And the company is giving dividend every year and the yield at this level is very good, it's going to entitle in July !

RM 0.01 dividend / RM 0.155 share price = 6.4% Dividend Yield


It's much better that many stock in Bursa and with such a cheap penny stock can get 6.4% can be said as it's crazily amazing and worth it ! It's definitely free as the upside potential of this stock yet to be mention !

We not even yet mention about their Education Business which showing steady income and improving ! 

It's a very big profitable Education business as it from pre school, kinder garden, primary until finish secondary !! One they join, they pay every semester until they finish form 5!

And we can see the surrounding area full of houses which is big population area.

The exciting part is that Education business always worth huge values as teachers, student are not easy to come by, we can see from most recent case that PARAMON sold off their Education business and bagging huge profit ! And going to give huge dividend !


Just to compare SRI KDU land and campus size with L&G Sri Bestari, we already can see quite obvious that L&G's Sri Bestari is much bigger and almost double compare to SRI KDU


Most interesting part is that both of this two school are actually very near ! Just 11.3 KM away!


With that we can safely estimate how much L&G' Sri Bestari actually worth !

According to a report by The Edge Malaysia, “Two Horses will acquire 69.7% equity interest in PESB for RM134.5 million cash, 80% in PEKSB for RM21 million and 80% in Sri KDU for RM385 million”. https://www.edgeprop.my/content/1553505/paramount-reducing-exposure-education-industry

PARAMON not yet even sold off the whole education unit already get a value worth RM 540.5m. If sold off fully based on calculation above, its roughly worth RM 700.46 millions !!
(PESB RM 134.5/69.7%x100% + PEKSB RM 21/80%x100% + Sri KDU RM 385/80%x100%)

Since SRI BESTARI size bigger than SRI KDU, we think that 
L&G' Sri Bestari easily worth RM 500 million to RM 1 billion!
If RM 500 million / Total L&G Share 2.973b = RM 0.168

If RM 1 billion / Total L&G Share 2.973b = RM 0.3363



L&G Education business alone already worth between RM 0.168 - RM 0.3363 much higher than current share price ! (RM 0.155)

Very undervalued stock ! Not yet even calculate L&G Property business and land values !


Lets just looking at technical chart to check whether it's ready for some movement:


We can see that Year 2005 after hit low and shoot high to RM 0.60.
Again year 2008 after hit low and shoot high to RM 0.50.
Year 2011 to year 2014 making Triple Bottom and shoot high to RM 0.55.

Year 2019 finally it hit the lowest again and forming a 14 years of TRIPLE SUPER BOTTOM.


If we zoom in closely, we already see that move out from the downtrend line, just recently, and we spotted big volume start appear this year and the price did not go lower, it's high possible that accumulation in progress and soon might have action of turning up.

As a conclusion,

1. Property market is recovering, goreng property stock theme is coming.
2. Revenue and profit is recovering, new high of 3 years and expecting to do better.
3. Dividend 1 cent is coming in July, high yield.
4. High NTA RM 0.369
5. Education Business worth big values, if sell off might double or triple up stock price.
6. Technically already making bottom, very low risk and high potential to bottom up.

My own personal "hope" for short term price to reach RM 0.22, mid term hope RM 0.35.

Tuesday, April 9, 2019

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Monday, April 1, 2019

HIL Industries Bhd - Blow Up Like Malaysia Flying Cars

HIL Industries Bhd. (8443) come into our radar very closely lately, and today we going to share it to you very quick and simple way that why we should monitor closely this company.

Before we mention about earning, what the company do, please do read the chart we show you first.

Immediately we view into the company stock price chart first :


Look like Malaysia style Flying Car right ??


OK let's be serious and read below carefully :

What the chart tell us is :

1. For the past two years price has been falling from peak RM 1.0 and drop until lately lowest RM 0.465 and start rebound to RM 0.61.
2. For the past few year daily price movement has been very low volume and price movement not moving in a normal way, because of too low transaction. (some time big up, some time big down).
3. Only recently suddenly after result in February, price start have daily transaction and movement.
4. Volume start coming in.

Above is just the Part 1 why we should watch closely this stock. 
We proved to you Part 1 is valid and it's not happen once, it's already many time in this company.


In year 2005 we can see obviously no much trading movement and volume, but once go into year 2006, volume suddenly in and daily price movement become normal, then price shoot triple up from RM 0.17 to as high as RM 0.54 (year 2017). 



In year 2007 after shoot high, start no daily volume and price start have funny daily movement then when 2008 April volume suddenly in, price movement back to normal, price shoot even higher to RM 0.70 +. 


There after 2013 happen again, when price have no volume and funny daily movement, suddenly in year 2014 volume spike in and daily got trading movement. Price shoot all the way up again, and hit highest in 2017 to RM 1.0+. 

3 cases from the same company have already show that the stock price always rocket shoot up when got volume and traded normally daily. So let us look into most recent chart again :

We can obviously see daily price movement back to normal with volume. Why is this happen so often in this company? Is this the very good opportunity for us to tap in once again? 

To me the answer is very obvious already. 

Part 2 why we should watch closely this stock.
If the answer still not obvious, we shall look into recent financial result :



Revenue new high, and profit new high !

That's the reason price start recovering?

Wow got RM 0.0175 cent dividend which will be entitle ex date on end of April 2019!

Not that simple, actually more are coming !

It has RM 112.94 million cash, its equal to RM 0.338 per share, so damn cash rich ! More than half of its share price !!

And retained profits already ready to give 1:1 BONUS ISSUES !!
(maybe next quarter announce? since share floating in the market are so little !)


Part 3 why we should watch closely this stock.


Proton New X70 selling like hot cake !


But Perodua Aruz selling like hot ladys !



Perodua Aruz sales speed up like the car already can fly ! 

Why I show you car sales? Because HIL Industries Bhd are car parts supplier ! That's why every few year the price spike up when got new hot car model lah ! Now you know and it's still not too late !

Use some very simple calculation, PROTON 8500 unit + PERODUA ARUZ 14000 unit = 22500 unit.

Let say HIL can only earn each car RM 50 already confirm that HIL can make a net RM 1.125 million !

Not yet even mention other car models, and the property sales, definitely result will be continue good !

Part 4 why we should watch closely this stock.

The company boss been buying non stop lately ! The market only have very limited stock left and all the company boss combine up should have already more than 70% holding. Will they privatize it??


The Net tangible Asset worth RM 1.0, so if take privatization surely higher than current price of RM 0.60+ only.


You may again saying that this stock move up was purely due to a single quarter result improve, which not going to lasting, but we can tell you that it's not the case. 

Part 4 why we should watch closely this stock.

Its not HIL alone making move, it's whole industry that involve in car parts !! 

Lets look at MCEHLDG a company that supply car parts to local car industry. 


We can see obvious rebound in year 2019 from RM 0.45 move to RM 0.63. It's a hint that the whole industry have wake up by New Proton, New Perodua car and other New car in the market.


DRBHCOM that selling PROTON car already show some rebound up. 


MBMR that selling PERODUA car even show big rally up up !

All above already show that HIL (8443) is ready to blow up like flying cars, and we not even yet mention their property sales that start billing which will definitely post better result in May.


As a conclusion, 

1. HIL (8443) has show price action and is ready to move.
2. HIL (8443) has very good fundamental and business prospect.
3. New car model has boost HIL business.
4. The whole car industry has already moving up, it's a big trend.
5. Company director keep on buying showing potential of privatization.
6. The company is ready to give BONUS ISSUE.


My own personal "hope" for short term price to reach RM 0.90, mid term hope RM 1.10, longer term if got bonus issue RM 1.30

Sunday, January 13, 2019

RGB - The JACKPOT MACHINE Is READY TO SPIN


Yes it's time and best time to consider RGB (0037) again ! Why ? Many obvious reason will be list down when you finish reading it.

RGB is a very unique company in Malaysia as the only Slot Machine maker and service maintenance company which already quite well known in trader eye as used to be invested by COLD Eye the famous Malaysia Investor. 

Let this article tell you how much more business potential for RGB as RGB recent great sales are coming from CAMBODIA ! (quarterly report mentioned INDOCHINA, assume to be VIETNAM, CAMBODIA, MYAMAR)



http://asianews.it/news-en/Casino-boom-in-Cambodia:-+-53-per-cent-in-2018-only-45865.html


However we usually don't explain on how the business too detail as we like to put fact on table and let them talk themself.

First for most, quarterly report : (READ BELOW closely STRONG INFO EXPOSED !)


Very obvious, we can see RGB have making very good improvement recent years, and latest quarterly result even post quarterly new high at RM 11.9 million net profit !!

This is not enough right? Why ? Because we have doubt for coming quarterly result. That's already solved because we know how to interpret information as below:

Source from this link : HERE 

The news above mentioned that highly confident that profit before tax for full year can hit RM 40 million profit before tax.

Let us just assume lah, if really RM 40 million profit before tax, then coming February quarter can post what result?

Just minus RM 40 million whole year to the announced 3 quarter which is :

RM 40 mil - RM 13.2 mil (3rd quarter) - RM 8.8 mil (2nd quarter) - RM 6.7 (3rd quarter) = RM 11.3 mil for coming quarter result.

Minus TAX should at least have RM 8-9 Million net profit which is way better than last year only 6 million ! 
50 % increase !!

Not enough?


It's nett cash company with roughly RM 0.055 cent per share !
So definitely a safe and healthy company !

SOME MORE ! 


Source : HERE 

The company servicing department already in planing to list IPO in HONG KONG ! And it will be this year ! This will confirm unlock the company value further as IPO in HONG KONG definitely get very good valuation !!

Good enough and lets look at the price chart, has it low enough? Should we chase ? 


What?? Weekly chart also show Technically it's still at bottom because of recent trade war and bad sentiment? Such good opportunity to buy at bottom, risk reward seems to be great !! Set cut if break RM 0.19 and potential upside target at least 5 time of cut loss which is RM 0.25 !! Lose 1 cent and win 5 cent ! Wow !

What about daily chart ?


Even more obvious that RM 0.205 sideways breakout with volume ! It's a good early bullish sign that still not yet up too much ! There is a gap at RM 0.25 at September 2018, could it be a big hint this bull wanna fill the gap very soon? Its definitely a yes to us !

As a conclusion :

1. RGB already posting strong solid result over years.
2. Cambodia, Vietnam CASINO all boom and increase over the year.
3. RGB income can be recurring due to servicing so no risk running out of sales.
4. RGB service department going to IPO in HK.
5. RGB price still at bottom and just almost turn up.
6. RGB is a net cash per share RM 0.055 cent company with very little debt.
7. RGB doing unique business that no much competitor in Malaysia.

My own personal "hope" for short term price to reach RM 0.25, mid term hope RM 0.30. 

Friday, November 23, 2018

ELKDESA - STEADY GROWTH THAT REMAIN SILENT



ELKDESA (5228) is a very low volume stock and not much people pay attention to it, that's why our title mentioned this company remain silent.

We have been also monitor this stock silently for years because if market don't move it, we even happy because we can slowly collect it.

However, we believe now is best time to share about this company because we believe the latest result have been telling us, it's big time for them to start a big rally ! 

What this company do? You can view their website first here:

http://www.elk-desa.com.my/

Basically their core business are hire purchase financing for used motor vehicles, and another is furniture. Hire Purchase Financing can be a very unique business and the very few that listed in BURSA. 

A little bit similar peer can be compare or related are RCECAP which also doing financial but different field.

To put this analysis simple and quick, first we show you the quarterly result ever since IPO until now.

We can see super obvious that during IPO year 2013, Revenue only RM 10 million and profit 2 million.



Until latest quarter, Revenue already growth to triple up to RM 30 million, and profit growth to 4x which is RM 8.6 million. 

It's very obvious that this company have been posting good result ever since year 2013 until 2018 and almost every quarter improve.

This have been very long time and already proved for 5 years tracking record, not much stock in BURSA can do that.



Looking at Dividend return also Superb as the company have 60% dividend policy, which with current price of RM 1.20+, dividend yield have about 5-6% which is consider quite good compare to many other stock.

Although the company have been go through a 3 time right issue, but in actual fact those right issue is give big opportunity for shareholder to buy at lower price and increase their share, which we can show you at the chart below. (Monthly chart to show price ever since IPO until now)


If we adjust the chart with right issue, we can see that all this year the price lowest only at RM 1.00.

And just last week price have making a Big Breakout !!

A breaking of RM 1.24 and close RM 1.27 seems to bring this stock to close at new high !!

We do not know whether you ever listen one quotes from BURSA, if a stock can break new high, at least another 20-30% upside will be seems because everyone is making money and the mood of buying up is high !

Another thing is that the company expecting to continue post even better result ! So what ?


As a Conclusion :

1. Revenue, Profit new historical high.
2. Revenue triple up and profit quadruple compare to the first time ipo result.
3. Almost every quarter improving revenue and profit.
4. Dividend increased, yield at about 5.6%, every year give 2 time ever since IPO 2013.
5. Dividend Policy (%) 60% of earning, that's why good dividend payout.
6. Business furniture and hire purchase loan to second hand car market and general insurance.
7. If you missed the growth of RCECAP, this one will be the next good choice.
8. Price has been sideways for 3 years ever since 2015, is time to wake up. 
9. Director been buying lately, price at RM 1.18. This level will be strong support.
10. Risk reward very good.  If count in pass few right issue, current price just break new high, which mean got 20%-30% to go higher.

My Personal target it should at least go to RM 1.40-1.60 level or even higher towards RM 2.0, once market recognize and notice it, sure will start goreng higher.

Saturday, October 13, 2018

LTA - Potential Strong Rebound Stock This Week

Last week market was really exciting as Hong Kong market, USA market big free fall ! 

However every fall will surely hit the floor and bounce up.

At this juncture we don't care whether this rebound can last or sustain but we would like to share with you stock that potentially rebound up ! To catch some short term money !


GAMUDA (5398)

Why GAMUDA remain TOP pick for catch rebound? As MRT2 already put on negotiation table, new Gov are quite unlikely to terminate their project and re-tender, price has been extra cheap at the moment. The white strong candle on last Thursday has already indicating a strong positive digestion of bad news which should see it move further up.

Potential rebound target RM 2.70 - RM 3.00.


QES (0196)

QES one of the cheaper price SEMICON stock and also recent IPO . Have posted very good result and market have been very positive with future outlook and prospect. Techinically has been strong uptrend which mean recent fall actually an opportunity to set entry for further upside.

Potential rebound target RM 0.36 - RM 0.40



WEGMANS (0197)

WEGMANS is one of the recent new IPO and furniture stock that has been very bullish uptrending, recent fall that cause by sentiment has already drop way below the uptrend line, which causing many short term player panic and cut loss, however it's expecting to recover stronger if world market remain stable.

Potential rebound target RM 0.38 - RM 0.40



NOTION (0083)

NOTION is a little bit special as in the progress of a big uptrend, and now consolidating in range awaiting to make a big push up. Recent fall has been great opportunity to set in. Has been forming bottom for half year all because of the beautiful fire that burn their factory, and now manage to claim RM 150 million which is about RM 0.45 cash per share. Current price only RM 0.60+ which mean you are buying pretty cheap !

Potential rebound target RM 0.76 - RM 0.90.



DANCO (5276) 

DANCO has been posting strong result, and price have been drop way below before recent announce result price. Expecting to see further rebound up as it's supposed to be very bullish uptrend.

Potential rebound target RM 0.48 - RM 0.52



JHM (0127)

JHM has been posting record high earning, yet price has falling way too much. It's supposedly breakout and bullish uptrend, fortunately bad sentiment has give us chance to enter at lower price. This must be golden opportunity as most likely it will further rebound up and further uptrend.

Potential rebound target RM 1.30 - RM 1.40.


CHINWEL (5007)

CHINWEL has just post a very strong result, price also finally break away from more than half year downtrend. It's already indicating a very bullish movement. Recent retrace from RM 2.0 again give chance to enter lower before it move much higher up. Compare to peers TONGHER price has been up up all the way, next should be CHINWEL's turn.

Potential rebound target RM 2.0 - RM 2.30.



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Above are merely my own analysis for learning only, buy or sell please seek advice from your license dealer !