AIRASIA - Now Flying is So much Cheaper !

Wow, Today KLCI Index flying down -42.62, closing at 1778.27, everyone should know its cause by the world crude oil price have fallen deeply to ranging 65-70 per barrel. So a quick update, which company will benefit the most in BURSA MALAYSIA?

 Yes, of course its AIRASIA (5099) !

A very simple explanation, lower oil price, cheaper cost for AIRASIA to fly and therefore earn more.

According to their boss :



Source: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/airasia-x-mulls-london-route-again-as-oil-prices-fall


Lets look at how AIRASIA stock price doing now :



(Look at the volume ! BIG FUND start pushing it up ! Buy before too late~! (refer conclusion 5 at bottom)

After OPEC decide not to cut production, AIRASIA price jump immediately from 2.40 to 2.79 today. Up about 16% or 0.39 cent. Do you think its high now? For me, I see its still very low price. AIRASIA have consolidate for almost one year at range of 2.0-2.5, and finally with such a great news, it breakout 2.50 and looking forward higher price.

Why I think its not high? Lets look at other AIRLINE company from different region and you will know actually our AIRASIA still have so much room to fly.




China Eastern Airlines during September was about 2.4 and fly to 5.80 closing today. Its 140%+ increase !!


Another Airline :

Hainan Airlines fly from 1.8 straight to 3.15. 75% increase.



Another

Amercican Airlines Group Inc fly from 23 to 49. About 100+ % !!



So lets come back to AIRASIA, did you see AIRASIA fly as much as other AIRLINE? We are way too far lagged which is a very good news for us !!

My logic analysis tells AIRASIA is good opportunity to buy at such a bad market because :


1. Oil price keep dropping, some expect to down further to 40-50.
2. Oil price drop will boost AIRASIA profits which their operating cost are almost 50% come from fuel.
3. AIRASIA price still very low compare to other region country.
4. Next quater we expecting AIRASIA will show a very good result due to lower cost, plus peak travel season during year end holiday ! (they like to give dividend at beginning of the year. (40% policy)
5. Important ! All oil and gas have fall more than 50% All fund manager have cut and out those counter and holding more cash position, I believe some already invested into AIRASIA !

6. Mas restructuring also benefit to AIRASIA ! 

7. All major research house from RHB, PUBLIC BANK, MAYBANK, KENANGA, AMBANK, HONG LEONG, ALLIANCE are giving buy call !

AIRASIA (5099) today 2.79. (1/12/2014)

My first TP 3.0, second TP 3.20 , Thirds 3.50.

HOVID - The Medicine to Cure

HOVID (7213) is a very special company in BURSA MALAYSIA and its worth to look at now and invest for many logic trading analysis as below: 

When talk about HOVID history, its come from a long long way, its best you watch the video to know how far have HOVID come through and its the legend of Chinese Medical product able to make a new legend in BURSA MALAYSIA? Judge yourself ! 

HOVID is a brand that most of the people know and proud because its a International product that come from Malaysia, I do not want to talk too detail about how is their company, but if you think to invest in long term with this company, yes you should read and study about it, because I find this company worth looking for a long term investment !! 

First most importantly is how is the company business? Making money? Yes ! Hovid have come from a long way, the fall before because of CAROTECH investment, even its have delisted already, its hard to explain but this company make them lose money and after few years of struggle and last few day quarter result have show HOVID is seriously improving and very potential to break new high for the stock price.  

Hovid have success maintain their profit and seems to be improving. You might not know that they going to have new production line by next year, not only that, they also will have a new distribution centre which helps for import business and local. You can refer here : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZY-qYE0m4c

You may also find that pattern cliff, its a good chance for HOVID to get more opportunity. You may read whats pattern cliff here : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/55900.jsp 

Tocotrienol is also once of their product that might change everything ! Refer here

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bfm_podcast/59636.jsp

Lets back to more detail stuff of HOVID future:

AND SOME BIG SECRET !! 

US DOLLAR IF KEEP MOVING UP is actually benefit to HOVID, as you know Dollar is increasing. HOVID business actually 60% is import to oversea and only 40% local. You may listen what the boss say here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bfm_podcast/59636.jsp

Another one, look at share capital and retained earnings... :D

Did you notice one of their important products is made from palm seed ? Palm oil price is dropping which might lower the cost as well !!

Lets view their chart a while:

Its seems HOVID testing previous new high already when RHB give a TP of 0.46, which later dropping back to current level. 0.385. Even during market big drop time, its fall to 0.34 and quickly rebound. Its high chance to test new high ! And with such good result, its not much possible to fall lower again.

HOVID is a very smart company as well, recently they launch a new product for good sleeping, and not to forget that they have online store as well. They know market is in such a bad situation, everybody involve in stock market might not be able to sleep well, so this HO YAN HOR NIGHT TEA might suitable for you to drink and sleep well.

HOVID is definitely a good investment and safe to buy counter at this kind of bad market.

My conclusion for logic trading analysis on HOVID :

1. Hovid got a very good boss, he know from bottom to top. He experience all and have the expertise.
2. Hovid manage to climb back after a really bad investment of CAROTECH.
3. Pattern Cliff
4. Tocotrienol
5. They going to have distribution centre to speed up everything.
6. Fundamental improving and potential of bonus issue in futures.
7. More new products
8. A strong local brand
9. USD VS RM
10. Nothing to lose, price is at cheap level.
11. Sickness is increasing, medical is new trend of futures big boom market after technology.

My First TP 0.46, Second 0.6, Third 1.0 (long term)

FRONTKN - Rising Asian Demand

FRONTKN (0128)  is a very unique company where not much other company doing the same thing they do. Its hard to explain what they do, best you move to their website and have a look. Today I share with you all why FRONTKN is covered by me and how potential this stock can rise !

Why this stock must put serious attention into it? This must look at the latest quarter result to confirm, yes, this stock is time to fly high. Its more than 3 years all time high for quarterly revenue and net profit !

If we look at what contribute the such a good quarter result, surprise its from TAIWAN ! Would it because of  Taiwan gas pipe bomb ? Anyway they also put CHINA, INDONESIA at their list, which this two country are going to be the most strong growth in coming years.

My logic tells they going to secures more project from different countries and will improve their business. Which its show the management truly have desire to put their company into good score, remember last two years they are selling their inactive companies, have German directors buying shares and others, its a improving and recovering company !!

By looking at chart, its a very bullish signal and its very high chance to break previous high of 0.20 and move towards many years back high which is 0.50+.

I do not want to elaborate too detail about this company because I am confident this stock will rise ! You may do your studies !

My logic analysis tells FRONTKN is a very good counter to invest,

1. Result show very good, price still very low, very high potential to fried.
2. Company business is unique, which less competitor and high business growth potential.
3. Warrant will expired soon, high chance director will take opportunity to fried mother share up to let go warrant.
4. Oil and GAS counter all rebound strongly, which will benefit FRONTKN as well.

My first TP 0.22, Second 0.30, Third 0.50 (long term)

CENSOF - Safe Heaven To All IN Trip 2

Refer back my first Safe Heaven To ALL in for Censof here

http://bursalogicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/08/censof-safe-heaven-to-all-in.html

Why Am I writting second post ? Because its best moment to share to you all my logic trading analysis on why CENSOF is confirm to be Safe Heaven to All in Trip No 2.

First trip, I believe everybody makes good money after getting free warrant from Censof, Censof-wb.

I will explain in detail how and why CENSOF will definately safe heaven to All in:


1. We refer to some others GST counter, the most popular IFCAMSC (0023) , YGL (0086)

IFCAMSC post very good profit, and during their CEO briefing after result, they HINT GST income will only fully shown in coming quarter result (February)

YGL, even though previous many quarter YGL is making losses, but stock price also manage to pump up triple. And some one call WONG AH YONG (470722-10-5135) 67 years retire age man are still buying YGL. Logic tells this man are not nut, and he confirm this counter will show good result for sure within this few day. 

Lets looks back to CENSOF (5195)

If we calculate the free warrant b today price 0.365 (0.365/4 = 0.091) 

Mother price of today 0.54+0.091= 0.631. <--- This number is important !

Even you plus up the free warrant, up to date CENSOF only 0.631 from rally 0.48 which is only about 30% of increase. Other stock already double and triple from the rally point. 

So, what make my LOGIC trading analysis say about CENSOF ? WHY I am so confirm?

First, show above, CENSOF not yet fully fried by big players as there is others counter to fried. Its almost time for them to come back. BIG player have plenty of FREE warrant B to let go, which if they FRIED CENSOF, their FREE WARRANT B also UP ! WIN WIN Situation ! For sure they will take the opportunity to fried it once good result is out !

Second, do not forget I mention before that CENSOF own DNEX ! Look at DNEX ! Did you notice super BIG WHITE CANDLE ? Yes, they announce they have project with MAYBANK which expecting can earn many from the collaboration. Please check yourself HERE : <---- Click

And from some one very reliable saying that one of the local funds is buying DNEX ! You think that big white candle can be done by retailer? Nope. Its local funds. 

Dnex also post their result this month and its positive and expecting to be better in coming quarter because import and export will be more important in next year, plus their project with Maybank will definitely boost DNEX profit.

Conclusion,

My Logic Trading Analysis says,

1. CENSOF still have plenty of room to up. 

2. CENSOF this and next quarter result will confirm good. 

3. CENSOF up = free warrant b up, mean big player will collect more CENSOF and push up to enjoy 2 ride. CENSOF up = Free warrant b up. 1 bird 2 stone. 

4. DNEX bright futures, good result already shown. 

5. Now CENSOF is at cheap price due to poor market sentiment, nearly oversold, which expecting a new rally will form very soon, or right after result is out !

My first tp 0.60, second tp 0.70, last tp 1.0.

IRIS - Ace Market Super Star Rising

Good day everyone, if you missed my previous post, I hope you not missed this again. IRIS Berhad will definitely a hot ace market super star in coming weeks. Everyone in stock market should know about IRIS or at least see IRIS appear in most active trading page right? 

First of all, before I share some of my logic trading analysis on IRIS, at least you should know what is IRIS Berhad doing. I believe most of the people have a bad perception on IRIS or think IRIS is a penny stock, and fried stock. Many people trap in IRIS many years ago, but today, I want to tell you, my logic tells IRIS have changes to a strong and a potential Ace Market Super Star in coming days. Why? 

Many years back, IRIS was a small IT company but recently years they have expand to a diversify company which brings IRIS back into Profitable company and getting stronger in the diversify business field. You can see they are doing green technology, and building house with KOTO technology (cheap and super fast building method, some at Malaysia) at Papua New Guinea, even education recently. I may not want to get into too detail of their business, you can look at their 2014 annual report here for more details. CLICK HERE <--- 

Lets look at how IRIS stock price movement first. If you look at the chart, IRIS begin rally on January 2014, why? Logic say its all because The Ministry of Finance have open tender for Tourist Tax Refund Scheme to 4 Company in Malaysia, and IRIS is one of the bidder. Refer Here <-- 

With this news announced,  IRIS and rival competitor(Mpay) share price raise pretty much from 0.2 to 0.615 highest. And of course due to a long long waiting, investor have forgot and start worry whether IRIS secure the project or not, which we see the price start fall down. Just until recently share price start picking up with volume ! Logic tells, its a pre-plan shares collection for big players and insider because TRS project is a huge potential for company future growth !!

(you can see how MPAY thirsty for it, they have immediately gain investor become a huge stake holder just for bid this project, but sorry to say, its belong to IRIS now !)



Another factor cause IRIS share price to fall is their profit suddenly turn red for last quarter. Well, for me its a very small issue because We can see that the revenue is still maintain well, and most probably some of their investment and business not yet ready for profit. I don't like to comment in details because those information you can find from other places. I focus on my logic trading analysis. Its probably to put a red quarter result to make investor cut loss and sell. But its seems the share price not falling way back to 0.20 since rally, its mean that is just a trick from the company !
 

If you are so much worry about the other business of IRIS Berhad can sustain or not, its much more easy to read their last quarter result and you will see how positive they think on their coming business year !!

Lets back focus on the why its time for IRIS to be a hot super star. Its because they get the Tourist Tax Refund Scheme tender !! Look at the details of letter of awards from Kastam Diraja Malaysia. When you look at the LOA, you might be a bit blur and not sure what it mean. 

Refer what the boss say here: (latest) <--

Iris and foreign partner (Global Blue) will invest RM 155,09200.00 for this TRS project and get 15% commission from GST REFUND SERVICES (its 6% refund) and IRIS get 15% from it <-- 

It could be total GST refund from foreigner and IRIS get 15% !!

Small investment and big return !! WHY ? Read below

Just look at how big is the tourism contribution pass few years. I am very sure this TRS project owned by IRIS Berhad is something very very super good news to them.  

Have a simple estimate calculation based on year 2013: 

                                        65.44 Bil (65,440,000,000) x 6% = 3,926,400,000. Its 3.9 Bil !

                                        3.9 Bil (3,926,400,000) x 15% = 588,960,000. Its 588 Million !

IRIS 51% and Global Blue Company 41% = IRIS get RM 299.88 Mil a year !! 

Which is 10 time more than their current annual income !!!

And IRIS partner for TRS project is a powerful company as well !! Because they dealing with the recently world largest IPO ALIBABA GROUP !! You can research more what this group doing with Alibaba. And once this groups success enter into Malaysia, for sure its mean its have high potential Alibaba business will be related to them soon ! You should know all company got a mini relationship with ALIBABA is fly sky rocket - EFFICIENT, GDEX, GHLSYS.

After so much quick info, my logic analysis tell me, IRIS Berhad is a must buy counter.
Price still cheap, not yet reach previous high at 0.615.

1. IRIS after get TRS project, they are a super star now.
2. In coming years they are high potential switch to mainboard, usually will fried much higher when can go to mainboard, refer OCK, SMRT, REDTONE, MMODE, GDEX many more.
3. Its very cheap counter.
4. Its super growth mode counter.
5. Its have no reason to ignore this counter.
6. They might got chance to deal with ALIBABA
7. TA investment give a TP of 0.675 before they get TRS project ! Refer here: <---

My first TP 0.455 , second TP 0.50, third TP 0.615. After reach all the TP, it will become RM 1 and above!

RGB - The Sure Win Money Making Machine

RGB (RGB International Berhad) 0037

This company recently getting interesting and come into my radar. As you know, market is still uncertain and the heat is still over "penny stock" which mean that quality penny stock can be fried easily. But why big player will choose RGB compare to other penny stocks? My logic analysis as below:

Before I start, I shall introduce why I call this company the SURE win money making machine. This of course very much related to their business: "gamble slot machines" 10 time u play maybe 1 time u win money. Still not sure win?

RGB has grown from strength to strength since its inception in 1986. It all started from a humble operation in Penang, Malaysia, offering sale of electronic gaming and amusement machines to the now, public company listed on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad under Stock Code : 0037. Today, they have a workforce of more than 300 employees under RGB business operations in Malaysia, Kingdom of Cambodia, the Philippines, Macau SAR, Singapore, Lao PDR and Vietnam.

Recently this company have shine up in the stock market because the price movement have a small spike in recent day.
 
Is it the end of the story? No, this company should have more upside potential. We should know that this company recently have showing a very beautiful quarterly result: 
 


After review on their quarterly result, its tell you that they expecting to sell more machines and doing better in coming years. Its seems like Group managing director Datuk Chuah Kim Seah have materialize what he have said before.

Refer to :
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/valueinvestorresearchklse/53264.jsp

The important key point is their TSM division in this RGB company. Which if they sell more machine, they will have more recurring fees, higher profit sharing as well as more management fees to collect. This can ensure they can sure win more money in futures.

 
So is this company potential to be fried further up? Yes definately ! Now we should study what kind of company are in big player fried radar.  You should know recently hot penny such as PDZ, MARCO have all similar criteria. Which is share issued not too much or little. 1 bil share is just so right to be fried because its not too many and yet too little. 

 Market float cannot too little, if too little the share most probably controlled by the boss.

Plus today they just announced first interim dividend !! Its second time this year ! This company is actually quite generous in giving dividend in previous year from 2004-2007 until they got into down trend when world economic burst. Recent year they manage to make a come back, proved that they are really tough company. 

Many investor have already brought this share at earlier stage, around 0.09-0.12. If you ask me can this company price still go up? My logic analysis tell me definitely. 

1. Those who have brought the share at lower price, will not let go this company easily due to dividend and a big potential to hold for long term investment. 

2. Big player just start push up price from 0.12 to recent 0.165. Will they use few million/billion to just make 4 cent? Not likely. (refer to MARCO and PDZ and MPAY) All fried above 0.20.

3. This stock already come into many investor radar, buy call from many expert research team.

4. Asia gaming business will doing better especially CHINA recent year getting strong, many people make money and many people like to play gambles.

From Homily chart, show big players already come into the game just recently. What are you waiting for?

RGB should be coming day hot stock picks as dividend just announced and its safe to buy and hold for dividend.

There is a saying, when a stock break new high, it will go further at least 15-20%.



My target first Target Price 0.20, second TP 0.23 third TP 0.30.

CENSOF - Safe Heaven to All IN

This is my first logical analysis post, I will share to you how this CENSOF will be the most safe heaven to ALL IN in coming very near term.

 

Why CENSOF ? Its the most safe bet for now when market is not stable and all the company result have already released. So what we should focus and play from now on?

First we should now know, good result company mostly no up a lot or even drop such as INARI and others, bad result company drop much more. So trade fundamentally will definitely kill you immediately.

Market now focus on theme play and rumors much more than any TA or FA can do. Just take a look at IFCAMSC. GST in the move.

IFCAMSC have fly high from less than 0.10 to 0.495 in less than 3 month. If you based on TA, its extremely oversold and you will definately missed the opportunity. If you based on FA, this company PE is surely sky high. Its simply because BRAHMAL VASUDEVAN effect on this counter + gst play + a better earning. 

So what is all about with CENSOF ? Logic tell me CENSOF should fly much more than IFCAMSC can. Is that great? But of course CENSOF dont have indian man effect but without that, with my logic finding, it should reach my target at very short term. 

1. Just do a quick comparison for FA. A very quick one, you can see surprisingly CENSOF have less share issued compare with IFCAMSC. Market float is also not far much different. 35.21% IFCAMSC, CENSOF 42.25%. Which mean CENSOF can be fried easily like IFCAMSC too.

Compare to latest quarterly result, CENSOF are doing much better than IFCAMSC.

 

2. Look at CENSOF price. CENSOF not even start to fly up to previous high yet after result released due to poor market sentiment. So this is the best chance to enter and ignore whether the market is good or bad !! The lowest it can drop will not more than around 0.48. Logically it wont drop below 0.50 anymore and its tell me you don have to wait breakout or any stupid signal to all in this counter. You have to get in immediately before too late.When market turn good this will definitely fried high.

3. After you see FA and TA, we should apply more LA now. 

Censof own DNEX shares since last year at a very cheap price around 0.20+ and already sell off some.

Refer to : here 

And check yourself what is DNEX price now. : 0.325 !! 

Logic analysis tell CENSOF have already earn from their investment from DNEX ! And some more DNEX profit is improving !! Which mean it will unlock more values to CENSOF !! Bravo !!

4. GST is a very hot theme bring up by IFCAMSC, so we can obviously see market will put more focus onto other GST related counter also. You don have to care whether CENSOF will doing well for next quarter or not, logically it can be fried to break new high before next quarter result come. (Then you only prepare for exit or hold)

(some more company that buy GST software is still very little, more sales are coming, think logically confirm next quarter can do better than previous !) If 1 GST software sell RM 5000, 200 company buy = RM 1 mil. If they sell more expensive and get more than 200 client? How many company in Malaysia? Easily they can do better than previous quarter.

5. Lets logically think will the enter price of 0.52 being wash in near term. First move was at 0.48. If you are contra player that come in at 0.48. You most probably left at 0.50-0.52. And previous Friday volume, you can judge that first badge of contra player have already say bye bye. So to drop below 0.50 is hardly being affected by contra player. If coming Tuesday another badge of contra player come in at 0.510-0.525, I sure they will hold tight to at least 0.53 above only sell. Which mean, logically this stock will very hard drop below 0.51. 

Let say if the big player to wash you down below 0.50 to scare you, I will all in my mother father grandmother father money into this stock so that I can get such a cheap stock and wait big player fried for me again, will they so stupid? What will other do? Think logically this stock is such beautiful and only need to apply "logic analysis" to trade.

As a conclusion, 

Market focus on penny stocks now. To trade safe, look for stock not yet being deep fried and so you wont be deep fried by big players. IFCAMSC is already over fried, the risk is very high compare to CENSOF. Will market change focus to CENSOF ? This let yourself decide.

CENSOF should be coming weeks fried star and my first Target Price 0.605, second TP 0.655 third TP 0.80.    

About Bursa Stocks Logic Trading Analysis

What is Logic Trading Analysis?

I started this blog because I have experienced the failure of using TA (technical analysis) and FA (fundamental analysis) trading in Bursa Malaysia stocks.

Losing money is pain, but if not from all these pain, I will not learn to trade by my own "Logic Trading Analysis" to conquer the failure of TA and FA over time. Purely based on TA or FA is not good enough because the price movement of some popular stocks is getting more tricky BECAUSE the big player know your weakness and your TA or FA skills. That's why its important to use Logic Trading Analysis to avoid being kill by the big player.

So what is Logic Trading Analysis all about?

1. Logic trading analysis can be very abstract, it cant fully see by your bare eye, its required your brain to think fast, and act different, in order to win the game trading in the markets. 

2. Logic trading is to think, to trade differently not just based on technical analysis entry/exit, not just based on good fundamental. Its also think on the overall market ability, big player appetite, emotion, as well as the news, rumors that spread around the market.

3. Logic trading not mean to trade "logically" but its also can be illogical. It have to apply flexibly and changes quickly to favor the market and stocks movement.

4. Usually apply on very short term trading, it might only apply on next day, few hour, or weeks. 

 
Disclaimer: This is my personal logic trading analysis blog  that show my own personal analysis. All information provided here are for sharing purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.